Linda Hodges stood outside the Tarrant County Northeast Courthouse in Hurst, her eyes on the doors she had just exited.

Her husband was still inside voting. Hodges, 72, had been waiting for about five minutes Thursday morning.

“He must be thinking really hard about every line,” he said. “I passed right away because I knew what I was doing.”

He was voting Republican. He said that in addition to protecting the country from communism and socialism, abortion was a “big issue” for him in this election.

Hodges, a lifelong Christian, said his faith played a big role in how he voted. He believes Christianity teaches what is right and wrong, and he said it guides him to “keep babies alive and defeat criminals” by voting for Republican candidates.

Hodges said voting in presidential elections has always been a priority for him, but this year it’s more important than ever. A lifelong Tarrant County resident, he has seen Fort Worth politics slowly turn from red to purple. He’s not happy to see this direction, so he hopes to slow the change by using his vote.

“It wouldn’t be the end of the world if the elections didn’t go my way, but I wouldn’t lose hope,” he said. “This is an important choice for me because I am for life and individual freedom. “I don’t think we can stop the world from crashing and burning, but I can try to slow it down.”

Hodges’ observations on the changing state of Tarrant County politics reflect recent state and national election results. In Tarrant County, historically a conservative stronghold, the gaps between Democratic and Republican candidates have begun to narrow, especially at the top of the vote.

“Tarrant County is the 15th largest county in the country, so it needs to get a lot of attention. It’s the third-largest county in Texas, so it makes sense to put more focus on it,” said Mark Hand, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington. “The reason there’s so much focus on Tarrant County is because it’s one of the few large counties where Republicans have been in power for a long time. “The fact that it is one of them and this situation is now very controversial.”

Tarrant voters in 2020 narrow support President Joe Biden took on incumbent Trump and flipped the county blue by just over 1,800 votes. Biden became the second Democratic presidential candidate to win the district, following Lyndon B. Johnson’s victory in 1964. Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke also won the district in 2018, defeating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

Meanwhile, all positions nationwide remain held by Republicans.

As Election Day approaches, voters, candidates and political pundits are wondering: Will Tarrant turn red or continue to trend blue? Is Tarrant County’s future purple?

James Riddlesperger, a political science professor at Texas Christian University, said Democrats have reason to think they can be more competitive than ever in Tarrant County.

“Certainly, the numbers over the last few election cycles show that Tarrant County’s gap between Republicans and Democrats is narrowing,” Riddlesperger said. “But on the other hand, all things being equal, you would have to say that Republicans have a pretty significant advantage in Tarrant County because of Republican voting patterns over the last third of the century. We were very strictly accountable.

Riddlesperger said several factors could influence whether Tarrant County moves back to blue at the top of the ticket this election cycle.

Changing voting patterns can be difficult, Riddlesperger said. He added that Tarrant’s history of Republican support has set the party’s candidates up for success thanks to greater political experience, resources and favor.

“These are some of the things that have been doggedly pursued in Tarrant County,” Riddlesperger said. “The only thing we know for sure is that Tarrant, like all counties, will change over time, but you can’t really predict in which direction it will change.”

He noted that the political landscape looks different than it did in 2020. Four years ago, one of the top issues on voters’ minds was Covid-19, and many were upset with Trump’s response to the pandemic. With the current elections, the most important issues include reproductive health, changing economic perceptions and Israel-Hamas war.

Changing voter demographics could also lead to new voting patterns in Tarrant, Riddlesperger said. He said as older voters die off, a new generation of younger voters take their place.

“The number of voters in Tarrant County is not the same as it was four years ago. We had a lot of migration in Tarrant County,” Riddlesperger said. “It’s growing rapidly, so we’re going to have more voters, and some of those new voters won’t have as much knowledge of Tarrant County’s history as the voters of four years ago.”

Drew Shaw

/

Fort Worth Report

Chloe Cagle, a 32-year-old Fort Worth resident who works as a senior paralegal, said she feels optimistic that young voters will turn out in large numbers and increase the Democratic vote in Tarrant County. She and her husband, 33-year-old mechanical engineer Calvin Cagle, said they both voted Democratic at the ballot box.

While lining up to vote at the Southside Community Center on October 24, Chloe burst into tears when asked about her feelings about the election.

“We have a daughter,” Chloe said. “The future of women in this country under Trump and (JD) Vance is dire. We talked about moving from Texas. That’s how serious the situation is for us.”

Although Calvin prefers Dallas-area Congressman Colin Allred to Cruz, he said he is skeptical about Democrats’ chances. He thinks there are too many rural counties across the state to offset the urban vote.

Still, he wants his voice to be heard. A Fort Worth native, she has watched her city grow increasingly Democrat-friendly and is voting to support the city’s move to purple.

“This shows (politicians) that their voters don’t all think the same way,” Calvin said.

Hand said voters in current and future elections should expect political candidates to continue paying more attention to Tarrant County as voting trends change and move away from red. He suspects the presidency will be a tight race again this year.

“In a tied national race, we are all waiting to see which way voters will go,” Hand said. “At this point, it’s really hard to predict whether voters are going to break for Harris or Trump at the end of the day, and the direction they’re going to break away from is probably going to filter down to the Allred (vs. Cruz) race and also the election race. Vote in these local races.

For races like Tarrant County sheriffIn the matchup in which Democrat Patrick Moses is challenging Republican incumbent Bill Waybourn, Hand said Moses should hope Harris and Allred are doing the necessary work to sway independent, undecided and moderate Republican voters to vote Democratic this year. He said those who support Democrats at the top of the ballot will likely also support the party’s candidates later in the ballot.

Camilo Diaz

/

Fort Worth Report

Despite the presidential race’s impact on voter turnout and interest in national politics leading up to local elections, many local races can expect to see a predictable outcome.

The County Commissioners race, which includes districts 1 and 3, will likely be uncompetitive because redistricting and gerrymandering efforts. Longtime commissioners Republican Gary Fickes and Democrat Roy Brooks are leaving their seats open for the first time in 20 years, but political experts interviewed by the Report previously said it could be difficult to flip districts even with the advantage of openness. seats.

Texas’ gerrymandering also affects federal races; All U.S. House districts are almost guaranteed to retain their historic colors. US Representative Marc Veasey, D-Fort WorthSince 2013, he has won races to represent District 33, a paw-shaped urban district.

Many of Fort Worth’s urban, left-leaning neighborhoods are located in the Veasey area. The district is surrounded by safe red suburban areas such as District 12, which has been represented by U.S. Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth, since 1997.

As Granger retires, Democratic candidate for the seat, Trey Hunt, hopes to turn the region around. He faces an uphill battle against Republican Craig Goldman, whose campaign has raised nearly $2.7 million to Hunt’s $24,143.

Regardless of the outcome of the races, Hand said Tarrant County will continue to be at the forefront of statewide and national political debates.

“What we saw in Tarrant County both previews and illuminates what is happening within the Republican Party across the country and shows where we should expect the fight within the Republican Party to be, especially if Donald Trump is not given a second opportunity.” said El. “I think this fight will be fought out in the open, (and) Tarrant County could be one of the flashpoints in this fight.”

Cecilia Lenzen is the government accountability reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at: [email protected] or @bycecilialenzen.

Drew Shaw is a reporter for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at: [email protected] or @shawlings601.

News decisions at The Fort Worth Report are made independently of our board members and financial supporters. Read more about our editorial independence policy Here.

This article appeared for the first time Fort Worth Report and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.