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Minnesota vs. Rutgers prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends and stats
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Minnesota vs. Rutgers prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends and stats

Minnesota (6-3) had a poor start to the season, losing in a heartbreaking 19-17 loss to UNC; Before losing the first two Big Ten games against Iowa and @Michigan, they had an 86% postgame win expectation. However, since a 27-24 coin toss loss to the Wolverines, Minnesota has reeled off four straight B10 conference victories, including the “SoCal Sweep” of USC and UCLA in back-to-back weeks. While the Gophers effectively mount drives with a 46.5% success rate, they are also one of the least explosive teams in the Power Four, ranking 131st in yards per successful play and 128th in marginal explosiveness. Defensively, he ranked 16th in SP+, forcing 3-and-outs at a 37.5% rate (15th) and allowing a 20-plus yard play at a measly 4.6% rate (9th in the FBS). They are a high level unit.

There was a strong sense of optimism for the Rutgers (4-4) program, which qualified for the bowl for the second time since 2014. As RU opened, the Scarlet Knights took their early season schedule by storm, earning key victories over @Virginia Tech and Washington. With a 4-0 record. But since then, Rutgers has lost one-score games to @Nebraska and UCLA and been thrown out of the building by USC and Wisconsin, evening their record at 4-4. Offensively, RB Kyle Monangai leads a solid running game that ranks 17th in YAC and 41st in EPA/play. Monangai is considered doubtful to play in the competition and his situation needs to be monitored. RU is ranked 124th in EPA/rush while allowing a brutal 51% success rate (11th worst in the FBS). Despite ranking a good 46th in SP+ defense, Rutgers has allowed 119 points in their last three games.

NBC Sports has all the latest information and analysis you need, including how to prepare for kick-off, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the match from our expert staff.

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Game details and how to watch Minnesota @ Rutgers

· Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024
· Time: 12:00 EST
· Site: SHI Stadium
· City: Piscataway, New Jersey
· TV/Broadcast: NBC

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Minnesota @ Rutgers odds

Current rates as of Wednesday:

  • Money line: Minnesota (-250), Rutgers (+195)
  • Radiate: Minnesota -6.5
  • Top/Bottom: 46.5 points

That line dropped to Minnesota -4.5 and rose to the current range of -6/6.5. The Minny money line opened at -225 and is trading in the -230/-250 area. While Rutgers’ ML was still pretty close to the +185 open level, the game total did not deviate from the initial 46.5.

NBC Sports Betting Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Rutgers has been miserable last month, scoring 20 points or fewer in three of the last four games. Minnesota has scored 17 points in three of the last four games against USC, @UCLA and @Illinois. I’m rooting for the 16th-ranked Gophers defense and Rutgers’ “I’m leaving Under behind with ‘s team’s total of 20.5 points.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast Hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insights, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors learn more before placing their bets.

BetMGM College Football Analytics: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Date)

  • Ohio State +450 to +350
  • Miami +1800 to +1100
  • Indiana +5000 to +3500

Highest Ticket Percentage

  • Ohio State 14.2%
  • Texas 11.6%
  • Georgia 10.9%

Highest Handle Percentage

  • Ohio State 18.5%
  • Georgia 16.9%
  • Texas 11.5%

Largest Liabilities

  • Ohio State
  • Tennessee
  • colorado

Quarterback matchup for Minnesota @ Rutgers

  • Minnesota: UNH transfer Max Brosmer was a Walter Payton Award finalist in 2023 before being transferred to Minnesota to replace former QB Athan Kaliakmanis. Brosmer noticeably improved the Gophers’ passing attack, completing 67.5% of his passes at a 4-for-13 rate and a rock-solid 86.5 PFF passing grade, the 9th highest grade in the entire nation! He leads the Minnesota offense, which ranks 19th in passing success rate (47.5%), 7th in adjusted completion rate (75%), and 12th in interception rate of 1.4%. HC Fleck’s highly efficient passing attack targets players at or behind the line 29% of the time (ranked 30th); Which helps explain why the Gophers are currently the 132nd-ranked team in passing explosiveness.
  • –Rutgers: HC Greg Schiano moved on from ineffective 2023 QB Gavin Wimsatt in favor of former Minnesota signal-caller Athan Kaliakmanis, who transferred this offseason. The change of scenery benefited Kaliakmanis, who increased his yards per attempt average from 6.2 to 6.8 and dropped his sack pressure rate from 20.5% to 15.6%. However, the biggest measurable gain from an improved statistical perspective is Kaliakmanis improving his PFF passing grade from 58.2 to 76.8; That’s a fraction of a percent away from Alabama QB Jalen Milroe’s 77.2 passing grade. The change of scenery was beneficial for both Kaliakmanis and Minnesota. The “Grail of Kaliakmanis” adds another layer of intrigue to this B10 matchup.

Betting Trends and latest stats for Minnesota and Rutgers

  • Minnesota is 5-1 ATS when allowing less than 5.0 yards per carry, which is the 3rd-best mark among Power Four programs. (BYU #1 | Indiana #2)
  • Gophers QB Max Brosmer has a 79% completion rate in close and late situations, which is the 2nd highest mark in the Big Ten. Rutgers’ defense allowed a 70% completion rate in close and late situations
  • Rutgers has thrown for 20-plus yards on just 7.0% of its 242 pass attempts, which is the 10th-lowest among FBS offenses. Minnesota allowed a 20+ yard pass play on 5.7% of passes defended; This is the 3rd best mark among P4 defenses.
  • Rutgers ranks 123rd nationally with a 54% completion rate, but ranks 11th in the FBS with an average of 7.8 air yards per completion. The Scarlet Knights consciously sacrifice accuracy in order to achieve long passing plays.

College Football talk takes over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. MAKE THE BEST BET is your source for all things sports betting. Get all the insights from Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas on Thursdays at 6pm ET here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

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  • Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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  • Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
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