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    • How did Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in Michigan?
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    How did Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in Michigan?

    Harry Posted on

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    Former President Donald Trump won Michigan as part of a national wave election on Tuesday; in this election, he greatly outperformed his numbers in 2020; Added to this are factors that have particular resonance in Michigan, such as the war in Gaza and the diminished focus on the abortion issue. Free Press analysis of experts and election data.

    Analysts say several factors contributed to Trump’s victory in Michigan. Many of these, including concerns about the economy and inflation, affected Trump’s performance nationwide; ‘culture war’ issues such as transgender athletes competing in women’s sports; issues related to immigration and the US-Mexico border, and Trump’s performance improves among black and brown voters.

    Michigan, which the Associated Press described as a Trump victory shortly before 1 p.m. Wednesday, fell amid what was clearly an election swing. Trump wins other “blue wall” states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania As he moves toward a return to the White House, he is also winning the battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia; Arizona and Nevada are still too close to reach as of Wednesday morning.

    But three factors in particular may have been influential in Michigan: the Biden administration’s support for Israel in the war in Gaza; This hurt Vice President Kamala Harris in the Dearborn and Hamtramck counties and may also have softened her support among young people in college towns; and the subsequent diminished urgency of abortion as a Michigan election issue. Voters enshrined reproductive rights in the state constitution in 2022. Pete Hoekstra, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, said the Biden administration’s push toward electric vehicles is also seen as a threat to Michigan auto jobs.

    Trump is flipping two Michigan counties Biden won in 2020 – Muskegon and Saginaw – while improving his performance in several Michigan counties he won in 2020, unofficial numbers show, according to state records and unofficial results compiled by The Associated Press. Harris did not flip any Michigan counties that Trump won in 2020, according to unofficial results compiled by the AP.

    David Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University, said Harris’ struggles in Michigan and across the country are inevitable.

    “I think this election is about the economy and more specifically about inflation,” he said. “I think immigration is a big factor, and I think abortion is perhaps less of an issue than we are led to believe.”

    Dulio said issues like transgender rights can be important at the border, and the war in Gaza is a factor for Arab American voters. Trump visited Dearborn, sought and received votes there; He won the traditional Democratic stronghold, with Green Party Candidate Jill Stein likely taking votes from Harris.

    “I think this is largely a protest vote against the Biden administration’s policy towards Israel and the war in Gaza,” Dulio said. “I think I’ve even seen some anecdotes where some voters say they don’t want Trump, but they’re not voting for Harris.”

    Mario Morrow Sr., a Democrat and longtime Detroit-area political consultant, agreed that the economy is very important to voters and said voters are blaming him for things they don’t like about Biden.

    “I think Biden’s burden is extremely heavy on the Vice President,” Morrow said. “The reason for the turnaround was Harris and Biden’s administration. “It suddenly became his administration.”

    The economy likely fueled Trump’s gains among young men, including minorities. Morrow said other factors unique to Harris may have hurt her, too.

    “I think sexism and racism played a big role,” she said. “I think Republicans felt uncomfortable with the number one woman and the number two black woman being commander in chief.”

    Morrow also said Harris may have overplayed her hand on abortion rights.

    “When she first started running, all she stood for was reproductive rights and abortion,” she said. “A lot of men were rejected.”

    Morrow said the election results shocked him.

    “There’s a lot to do and it’s going to take some time,” he said. “We need a lot of people on both sides of the aisle to stand up and start this process.”

    Bellwether Saginaw County extended its record of voting for the winner in every statewide presidential race since 1992. Looking at 99% of the estimated vote, unofficial numbers showed Trump with 51% support in Saginaw County, compared to 48% for Harris, The Associated Press reported. Saginaw County supported Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2016.

    Trump improved his performance in Macomb County, near Detroit, which has long been a popular window into Michigan politics for national pundits. With 99% of estimated votes counted, Trump was leading Harris 56% to 42% in Macomb, compared to 53% to 45% in 2020.

    Although numbers from Wayne County lag behind many other Michigan counties, Trump wins the city of Dearborn55 percent of the population is of Middle Eastern origin.

    In Washtenaw County, home of the University of Michigan, Harris had 71 percent support, based on 99 percent of estimated votes counted, while Trump’s support was just under 27 percent, according to AP’s unofficial results. In 2020, Biden’s support was 73 percent, while Trump’s support was 27 percent.

    Leelanau County, near Traverse City, a growth area for wealthy Michigan and Illinois residents, was one of relatively few counties nationwide where Harris did better against Trump than Biden did in 2020.

    Based on 99% of estimated votes counted, Harris had 53% support in Leelanau, while Trump’s support was just over 40%. In 2020, Biden won Leelanau, but it was 52% to 47% in a much closer contest with Trump.

    While Trump marginally increased his percentage of the vote in some counties he won in 2020, he also significantly increased the total number of votes.

    In Dickinson County in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, for example, Trump had a 67% to 31% lead over Harris, according to 99% of votes counted and estimates compiled by the AP. In 2020, Trump beat Biden by a smaller margin of 66% to 33%, but Trump received more than 10,300 votes on Tuesday compared to just 9,617 Dickinson votes, an increase of more than 7%.

    In West Michigan’s Kent County, Harris also fell short of Biden’s 2020 margin of victory. Rounding up, he won by 4 points, compared to Biden’s 6-point lead, according to AP estimates. His margin in raw votes was about 4,800 votes less than Biden’s, records show.

    Contact Paul Egan: 517-372-8660 or [email protected].

    Harry
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