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Your questions about the 2024 election results, from Trump hearings to polls

Harry November 8, 2024

Why is it so surprising that President-elect Donald Trump nearly swept states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? What are your conclusions about what Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign did wrong?

These are just a few of the questions you may have below. Trump’s presidential victory over Harris on Wednesday. Twice-impeached Republican saved two assassination attempts and it was Convicted of 34 serious crimesHe garnered more than 270 electoral votes, winning all seven key battleground states and securing the popular vote. Harris Adopted late WednesdayHe promised that “we will never give up the fight for our democracy.”

USA TODAY political reporter Aysha Bagchi Met with reporters from The New York Times, The Washington Post, Reuters and Yahoo News Reddit AMA (Ask Me Anything) was called in a few hours after the race to answer some of your questions about Trump’s comeback, polls leading up to the presidential race, and more.

Here are six key points from the discussion:

Question: What happens now (legally) with the open lawsuits against Trump? Especially the punishment and other open cases due to his conviction?

Reply: A colleague and I have a story Here It covers this topic in more depth. In sum, Trump’s election victory likely changed his situation on crime.

Many legal experts think Judge Juan Merchan cannot impose a criminal penalty against Trump that would significantly impact the presidency. Merchan may decide to suspend the entire sentencing, which is currently scheduled for Nov. 26.

Three other cases, one from Georgia state prosecutors and two from federal prosecutors, face similar problems. Moreover, Trump has already said he will fire special counsel Jack Smith, who is handling federal investigations.

Early reports to indicate Smith’s office may already be exploring how to end these cases. Ministry of Justice memory Starting in 2000, he said that suing a sitting president would “unnecessarily interfere” with the president’s job responsibilities.

Q: Can you comment on Iowa Seltzer (Exactly) questionnaire? Can you explain how a professional, unbiased survey source could be 16 points away from reality?

A: Good question. Our team at the Des Moines Register He said he would examine Selzer’s data to determine the disparity between poll results and Trump’s victory.

Here’s some more information from the Register, which published the following: latest poll This showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa:

Selzer has long been considered Iowa’s gold standard pollster, and Tuesday’s results represented a rare omission in his assessment of Iowa voters. Survey from 2008 to 2020 Accurately reflected the winner of the presidential race in Iowa

While Selzer said he plans to look deeper into the data, there were a few things he noted Tuesday night.

“Technically, there was some ‘yield’ in the poll in that no candidate reached 50 percent,” he said. “Therefore, people who said they voted for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could easily switch to Donald Trump. Those who decided late could choose Trump in the final days of the campaign, after the interviews were completed. They had already voted but chose not to tell our interviewers who they voted for.” “What happened could have given Trump an advantage.”

The Iowa Poll showed Kennedy, who has ended his presidential bid but is still on the ballot, with 3% of the Iowa vote. Less than 1 percent said they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1 percent said they would vote for someone else, 3 percent were unsure and 2 percent didn’t want to say who they voted for anyway.

“Maybe I can get some clarity on that 9 percent rate and the underlying trend for the presidential race,” Selzer said.

you can read more about it here.

Question: Foreign actors’ bomb threats, disinformation campaigns, etc. Were there obvious signs that he was interfering in the election?

A: There were signs before and on Tuesday that foreigners were interfering in the election.

I’m reporting from Georgia this week. Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger It was announced on Tuesday It was stated that some voting centers were temporarily closed due to bomb threats from Russia. The FBI released a statement saying bomb threats were made from Russian email domains to polling stations in several states.

Ahead of Tuesday, Russian actors were involved in a campaign to undermine confidence in US elections and fuel divisions among Americans. According to the FBI. For example, a debunked video that federal intelligence officials say came from Russia There was a man from Haiti He has talked about his plan to vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election more than once.

The Iranian government is also interfering in US elections. federal intelligence officials say. Before Joe Biden ended his campaign, Iranian hackers sent unsolicited information they stole from Trump’s campaign to the Biden campaign. Government did not reveal any evidence Biden said his campaign partners responded to emails containing excerpts of the stolen material.

Question: Why do you think pollsters have been so consistently and blatantly wrong about Trump over the last 8 years?

A: The final numbers are still coming in and the polls are coming out with margins of error, but this is the third presidential election in which many pollsters have underestimated Donald Trump’s support. Even when Joe Biden won in 2020, he won by a smaller margin than polls generally predicted.

In post-mortems following the previous two elections, some pollsters thought Trump was attracting voters who did not vote consistently and were thus not adequately captured by pollsters as likely voters. Poll experts also mentioned the possibility that a relatively larger number of Trump voters are more skeptical of institutions, making them less willing to respond to polls. Some Trump voters may be reticent to say they plan to vote for Trump, poll experts said. The pandemic may have also played into the problems in 2020, as Democrats may have been more likely to stay home and respond to polls.

Many polls for the 2024 elections have attempted to correct previous undercounting, for example by adjusting poll results to take into account how people who responded to the polls said they voted in 2020. Some even thought the adjustments this time might mean the polls were overestimating Trump support.

What will the post-mortem of voting be like for the 2024 elections? It may reflect some of the potential problems we’ve seen before. But time will tell.

Question: The Jack Smith investigation has been effectively covered up, but Trump still has state cases and sentences for all of them. What happens there? After the SCOTUS decision earlier this year, where does Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment fit into this issue?

A: It’s true that Trump said he would fire special counsel Jack Smith, who led two federal investigations.

Some legal experts have previously suggested that this move could leave Trump facing obstruction of justice charges. However, the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision on July 1 may also protect Trump from this risk. The court’s conservative wing ruled that Trump is absolutely immune from prosecution in his federal election interference case over his allegations about conversations with Justice Department officials. Perhaps this would mean that a president/former president cannot be charged with obstruction of justice for ordering the Justice Department to drop the case against him?

Trump may also try to get himself pardoned in federal criminal cases. Legal experts have differing opinions on whether this is allowed. The Supreme Court made no decision on this issue.

These are two options Trump does not have in criminal cases in New York and Georgia. But his election would still be good news for him on these fronts as well. Trump’s lawyers may now argue that it is unconstitutional to move forward in the Georgia case or to sentence him on Nov. 26 in the New York case because it interferes with his responsibilities as the president-elect and potentially later as president.

Since Trump is the first president-elect in this state, we don’t know how the debate about state investigations will play out. However, in the immunity decision of the Supreme Court, it is mentioned that the judiciary will not be asked to intervene in the executive. Trump’s lawyers might say that means state courts shouldn’t interfere with the presidency. They may also point to a clause in the US Constitution that says federal laws take precedence over state laws (the supremacy clause) and say this means state courts/prosecutors are not allowed to interfere with the presidency.

Question: Considering that the president-elect wants to jail journalists, will you continue reporting as you have for the last four years, and do you expect him to do the same to his enemies?

A: We will be sure to report on Trump’s next presidency.

Many Justice Department observers worry that Trump may try to use the department to go after enemies. Nancy Pelosi shared images on the real Social depicting Kamala Harris and Joe Biden in overalls and called out those serving on the House Committee questioning the attack on the Capitol on January 6.

There are reports that Trump tried to go after his rivals during his first term. Trump’s first attorney general, Jeff Sessions, told prosecutors that Trump asked him to recuse himself from investigations into the campaign and order the Justice Department to prosecute Hillary Clinton in 2017. Mueller report. New York Times reported In 2018, Trump told White House counsel Donald McGahn that he wanted Hillary Clinton and James Comey to be prosecuted.

Some fear Trump may face less resistance in a second term. Allies I stated He will look for loyalty and commitment to his agenda when selecting personnel for his next administration.

For a deep dive, I wrote more about these concerns here.

Click here to read the entire AMA.