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Best Bets for Bears Fantasy Football Games and NFL Week 9
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Best Bets for Bears Fantasy Football Games and NFL Week 9

More information probably needs to be given on how the Bears defense held Jayden Daniels to four field goals until he finished the tipped pass play.

It did not go unnoticed by fantasy football experts.

While viewing Kyler Murray as a play against the Bears defense, it may be best for fantasy owners to do what SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano suggests, and that’s sit the Arizona QB after two blowout wins.

Fabiano noted that the Bears defense has allowed only Jayden Daniels to score more than 17 fantasy points among quarterbacks this season, and that needed a Hail Mary gaffe from Tyrique Stevenson to do so. Let’s not forget the assists he made before the Hail Mary when coach Matt Eberflus decided not to defend on the sideline.

The Bears’ secondary held true even without Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon playing and with Josh Blackwell and Elijah Hicks on the roster. They were down three men and the best bench player in London against Jacksonville, and could be down by two this week with Gordon returning and the strong possibility that Stevenson will face some kind of disciplinary action.

But they still continue to defend it.

It might be best to forget about pass rushers in this game all together, at least for fantasy football.

Caleb Williams was suggested as the starting player by Fabiano this week. It may not be a wise choice.

“Williams, despite being a great matchup on paper, was terrible last week, losing just 9.3 points against the Commanders,” he wrote. “Still, he had scored 17-plus points in three of the previous four games, and a contest in Arizona was a positive.”

How advantageous is it really?

Starting left tackle Braxton Jones is out, reserve left tackle Kiran Amegadjie is out. Instead they will start Larry Borom, who has been on IR all year.

And Williams is facing an unorthodox defense. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams had a passer rating in the 40s when under pressure in road games.

Even though the Cardinals’ pass defense has been porous and ranked 26th, the variables don’t suggest it’s a passing game.

BEARS AND CARDINALS: WHO WON AND WHY

Here’s who will start and sit for Sunday’s Bears rescue game in Arizona.

1. Bears RB D’Andre Swift

He’s the league’s dirty little secret at running back, as he ranks 11th among Fabiano’s backups this week. He ranks fourth in the NFL in yards among all players and has 533 yards from scrimmage over the last four games. The only thing that makes this less obvious to fantasy owners is how the Bears take him out and put Roschon Johnson or Doug Kramer at the goal line so he doesn’t score as many goals. Maybe he can do it if given the opportunity. At least he’d do better than Kramer.

2. Cardinals RB James Conner

In addition to being a legitimate force as a running back, he ranks third in the league in yards after the catch and has 712 all-purpose yards. If they spread the field out against a Bears defense looking to play pass coverage, then he could go a long way. The Bears have been good against opponents in the red zone, but teams are trying to continue to attack tight pass coverage instead of going after run defense.

3. Cardinals TE Trey McBride

The Bears defense needs to keep their eyes on both Murray and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., and linebackers need to watch Murray and James Conner. He’ll leave McBride open at times. Last week, Daniels hit Zach Ertz seven times for 77 yards. Ertz felt young again, or at least it seemed that way. McBride is young and could benefit from the soft underbelly of Bears news.

4. Bears TE Cole Kmet

There’s a good reason why Matt Eberflus looked at the stats and said after last week’s game that they should target tight ends and more running backs. He wasn’t criticizing the offensive coordinator there. It was up to Williams not to control that or overlook gaps in his progress. Kmet had only one goal. That won’t happen again against the Cardinals scheme, who was out of position to tackle an out-of-control truck coming downhill on a short pass.

CAN THE BEARS RECOVER FROM LAST WEEK’S DUTTER DEFEAT?

IF THE BEARS PUNISH TYRIQUE STEVENSON, WHY CAN’T SHANE WALDRON TOO?

BEARS’ SECONDARY HEALTH IMPROVES BUT O-LINE LOSTS BRAXTON JONES

BEARS ARE BEST POSITIONED TO HARM CARDINALS

5. Bears WR Keenan Allen

Center short field and short right are where Allen can be found most often, and those are areas where Arizona’s defense has had trouble defending. The connection between Allen and Williams continues to grow, and extending drives on third downs is key in this game to keep the Cardinals’ explosive attack at bay. Looking for a precedent against Arizona? Good luck. Allen had been in the league a long time but had never faced the Cardinals.

6. Bears WR DJ Moore

Moore has six catches for 47 yards in the last two games. Of course, the odds favor a breakout for him from here on out, but he’s had 27 yards or less in three of the last four games. This is a trend that is hard to resist. Williams didn’t trust him enough to be open to forward shots. Sean Murphy-Bunting and the Cardinals’ cornerbacks may make it difficult to put up big runs, but Moore needs to find a way to contribute.

7. Cardinals WR Greg Dortch

If you want a sleeper starter this wouldn’t be a bad choice. Dortch had two catches for 45 yards against the Bears last season, and if they come back to stop Harrison, their defense can’t defend down low either.

8. Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Pro Football Focus recommends Harrison be benched by fantasy owners this week because he isn’t as good against zone coverage as he is man-to-man. And the Bears are zone masters. He’s actually good enough to start with fantasy ball against the Zone, so ignore the analytics on that but don’t expect huge numbers, just decent enough numbers.

1. Bears QB Caleb Williams

Pressure and route stats are too much of a hindrance to running it. They really need a “superman” type performance to get back on the track, but according to PFF stats, he has a 45.09 passer rating under pressure in road games and a 66.5 passer rating in all road games regardless of the situation. There are too many external issues to prevent anyone from thinking they can turn this all around. When he starts to improve with his numbers away from home, he can play there too.

2. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

If there’s one reason to play him, it’s the dual threat he provides. But the Bears’ pass defense held up, whether against Daniels, CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence, or pocket passers like Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton. Murray’s consecutive strong plays aren’t enough to show he can put up big numbers against the best defense in the red zone or in passer rating.

3. Bears WR Roma Odunze

He thinks it might explode suddenly. There’s always a problem or two, but nothing major. However, Odunze seems to have caught Williams’ eye in the matches. It’s not a game until you consistently score big numbers.

4. Cardinals WR Michael Wilson

If Harrison is kept in check and Murray can’t put up big numbers, it might make sense for Wilson to get a few more receptions than usual. He has 21 points in eight games but rarely carries more than 12 yards. However, these types of receivers are receivers who drop into coverage and pick up yards against their own zone. The Bears haven’t largely given up yards and catches against receivers like Wilson, and Wilson wasn’t going to be on anyone’s fantasy radar anyway.

SPORTS ILLUSTRATED SELECTIONS OF THE WEEK

Defense

The smart money is on the Bears for team defense, but it’s still a risky play due to the injury factor with Montez Sweat, Jaquan Brisker out, and Gordon just coming back from injury.

If anyone stands out in IDP leagues, it’s certainly Cardinals safety Buddy Baker. The slightest mistakes from Williams and Baker will be there. It seems like their defense is designed to allow him to roam freely at free safety, so he can get to the ball, make tackles, and make big plays.

Betting Window

Bears in SI Record for Bears Games: 6-1 straight up, 5-2 against the spread, 4-3 over/under.

This Week’s Bear Forecast: Cardinals 26, Bears 17

Roundup NFL Around: 10-5 straight, 5-10 ATS, 2-2 power play

So far in the NFL: 78-42 straight (.650), 66-52-2 ATS (.559), 17-15 on power plays (.531)

This Week’s NFL Games and Picks:

**9. Week Thursday night match

*Power Steal

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Twitter: BearsOnSI