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How does Putin view the choice between Harris and Trump and what does the choice mean for Russia?
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How does Putin view the choice between Harris and Trump and what does the choice mean for Russia?

“But she’s been dropped from the race and he’s advised all his supporters to back Ms. Harris. Well, we’ll do that – we’ll support her,” he said sarcastically, showing off her “impressive and infectious smile” showing “how strong she is.” “It’s going well.”

Tuesday’s election carries significant consequences for the Kremlin, and despite Putin’s neutral and somewhat sarcastic response, it appeared to encapsulate Russia’s view of having to choose between two unattractive possibilities.

Analysts say neither holds much promise for improving relations that are at their lowest point since the Cold War.

Current vice president Harris has taken a tough stance against Russia, while former president Trump is known for his admiration for Putin. Yet at the September meeting, Putin complained that while Trump was in office, there were “more restrictions and sanctions against Russia than any other president before him has put in place.”

Timothy Colton of the Harvard Academy of International and Area Studies said the Kremlin leadership was “generally convinced that nothing good would come out of the elections for Russia.”

But overall, he added, Trump “was probably their choice; he’s a better-known person.”

Key issues for Russia as the US elections approach:

What about aid to Ukraine?

As Russia’s invasion approaches its third year, Harris appears likely to continue the Biden administration’s massive military and economic support for Ukraine.

Trump boasted that his rapport with Putin and the respect of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was so strong that he could negotiate an end to the war “within 24 hours.” He declines to detail his strategy, but recent statements criticizing sanctions generally suggest he may lift sanctions on Russia to help resolve the dispute.

During the debate, Trump twice refused to directly answer whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war; Harris praised the West’s support for Kiev and called for its continuation.

“Otherwise Putin would be in Kiev with his eyes set on the rest of Europe. “We’re starting from Poland,” he said.

Trump’s running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, has mentioned proposals that might suggest Trump’s idea: Ukraine demilitarizing territory occupied by Russia and agreeing to permanent neutrality. These terms would be anathema to Kiev, but Trump had little sympathy for Ukraine, saying Zelenskyy “should never have allowed this war to start.”

Harris did not specify how her position would differ from Biden’s. The United States has provided more than $59.5 billion in weapons and aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022. He has previously said it would be foolish to risk the global alliances the US has established and condemned Putin’s “brutality”.

The International Crisis Group said in a commentary that Harris’ victory “likely promises continued U.S. support as long as the administration can maintain congressional support,” but said she may seek to end the conflict more actively than Biden. Growing congressional hostility to massive aid spending to Ukraine could disrupt or reshape his strategy.

How will the US approach Russia on human rights?

Harris has directly confronted Russia on such issues, particularly over the prison death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. He was among the first foreign leaders to comment on his death, calling it “another sign of Putin’s brutality.”

Trump delayed commenting for days, then did not link Putin to the matter. He compared Navalny’s sentence to his own fraud case, calling his case “some kind of Navalny.”

Trump called for a bill declaring that only two genders exist and vowed to keep transgender women out of women’s sports; These positions parallel Russia’s rollback of LGBTQ+ rights and praise of “traditional values” under Putin.

His characterization of Democrats and their rivals as “enemies within” is not unlike Russia’s increasing suppression of dissent in spirit.

How will NATO be affected?

Trump has bickered with other members of the NATO alliance, demanding that they meet agreed spending levels for their militaries in their national budgets. He said that as president, he warned leaders that not only had he refused to defend nations that did not meet those goals, but that Russia “could do whatever it wanted” to such countries.

Trump also questioned the mutual defense clause of the NATO charter, asking in an interview why the United States should have to defend the “very aggressive people” of NATO member Montenegro.

Harris says the US’s commitment to NATO is “fierce”. He did not evaluate whether he supported Ukraine becoming a member of the alliance.

What about arms control agreements with Russia?

Putin has repeatedly brandished his nuclear saber to dissuade the West from supporting Ukraine.

New START, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between Moscow and Washington, will expire in 2026. One year after the new administration took office, the future of this agreement is problematic.

Biden quickly renewed the treaty upon taking office, and Harris can be expected to follow up on that support for the treaty limiting the number of intercontinental nuclear missile launchers.

Russia suspended participation in 2023, although it did not withdraw, and the United States retaliated with measures including halting the sharing of information on the location and status of missiles.

Although Trump has warned of the threat of “nuclear overheating,” he has taken steps to dismantle the arms control regime while in office, including withdrawing from the INF Treaty on intermediate-range nuclear weapons, which bans land-based nuclear and conventional missiles. It has a range of 500-5,500 kilometers (310-3,410 miles),

While in office, Trump called for a new nuclear deal that would include both Russia and China.