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    • Republicans have narrowed Democrats’ early voting advantage. Will it matter?
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    Republicans have narrowed Democrats’ early voting advantage. Will it matter?

    Harry Posted on

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    WASHINGTON — Republicans cut back Democrats’ final advantage in early voting – including key battleground states – Vice President Kamala Harris He was behind where Democrats were four years ago in primary voting.

    It came after a concerted effort by the Republican candidate Donald Trump’s The campaign encourages supporters to embrace early voting, including voting by mail. after former president demonized the app The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with the 2020 election.

    during Trump A campaign rally in Duluth, Georgia, on Wednesday“People have never seen anything like this,” he said, boasting about his critical swing state’s record-breaking early voting numbers. But election data experts say there’s no clear conclusion to be drawn from Republicans’ gains in early voting, and Harris’ allies insist the trend isn’t causing their troops to panic.

    Democratic strategists say they expect Republicans to make progress and now vote on Nov. 5 amid Trump’s new focus on early voting and a shift among Democrats voting by mail due to health concerns during the contagious global pandemic.

    As of Thursday, nearly 30 million Americans had voted early, voting in person or by mail. According to the University of Florida Election Lab.who follows the numbers every day. More than 100 million people voted in early 2020, out of approximately 158 million votes cast in one race Democrat wonPresident Joe Biden.

    In states where voters can register by party in 2024, 42 percent of the votes cast came from registered Democrats and 35 percent from registered Republicans. The other 23% came from voters who were not registered with either party.

    That’s a smaller gap in early voting for Democrats than in 2020. In this election, Democrats received more than 45% of early votes in states with party registration, compared to 31% for Republicans and 24% for those with no party affiliation. Trump and Republicans dominated Election Day voting in 2020, but not enough to retain the White House for a second consecutive term.

    With 12 days until Election Day, Republicans have halved Democrats’ 14 percentage point early voting advantage in 2020. There is now a 7 point lead for Democrats.

    “This time it looks like Trump has given his supporters the green light to vote early,” said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida who oversees the Election Lab.

    But he also emphasized that many loyal Trump supporters who voted on Election Day 2020 had voted earlier this year.. It’s a factor that could “cannibalize” Republicans’ historically stronger tally on Election Day.

    “There appears to be some furniture shuffling, but who knows exactly to what extent,” McDonald said. “No matter what, if I step back, it would be good for the Trump campaign if more voters cast ballots earlier.”

    Republicans make headway in early voting in battleground states

    In four of the seven most contested states (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada), voters can register by party.

    • In Pennsylvania, where early voting is done entirely by mail. 61% of 1.2 million votes cast It was elected by registered Democrats, compared to 29% of registered Republicans and 9% of unaffiliated voters. Democratic voters at the same point in 2020 72% of mail-in votes, Republicans 19% and independents 9%.
    • In North Carolina, where 2 million early votes were cast in person or by mail, 35 percent of the votes came from registered Democrats, 34 percent from registered Republicans and 31 percent from voters not registered with any party. At the same point in 2020, Democrats announced: For 43% of the state’s early and absentee votes, Republicans 28% and unaffiliated voters 29%.
    • In Nevada, where every voter receives a mail ballot, 40 percent of the votes cast came from registered Republicans, 37 percent from registered Democrats and 23 percent from unaffiliated voters. At the same point in 2020, Democrats accounted for 45% of early votes in Nevada and Republicans accounted for 33%.
    • In Arizona, 42 percent of early mail-in votes came from registered Republicans, 36 percent from registered Democrats and 22 percent from unaffiliated voters. At the same point in 2020, Democratic voters made up 44% of early votes in Arizona, while Republicans made up 34% of the vote.

    The early vote shares of the Democratic and Republican parties will continue to change until election day. And in some states, other factors also play a role. There are more registered Republicans in Arizona For example, four years ago, Biden held the state more than the Democrats.

    in Nevada, new automatic voter registration law The number of voters not registered with either party has increased. Democrats say they believe these unaffiliated voters are turning to them.

    Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, a Democratic-aligned firm that tracks early voting numbers, said Democrats were “more COVID conscious” than Republican voters in 2020 and therefore more likely to vote early.

    As more Democrats switch from early voting in 2020 to voting on Election Day this year and Republicans do the opposite. Republicans’ early vote gains Bonier wrote in an analysis on Substack on Thursday that he warned people not to draw sweeping conclusions from the votes cast so far.

    “Is this a sign of (Republican) intensity, given that it was expected?” Bonier said in an interview with USA TODAY. “We don’t know right now.”

    Trump changes his mind on early voting

    Ahead of the 2020 election, Trump repeatedly attacked early mail-in voting with baseless accusations about the legitimacy of mail-in ballots. The former president’s rhetoric helped Biden and Democrats gain a significant lead from early votes cast before in-person Election Day voting began.

    In a pivot this year, the Trump campaign promoted early and mail-in voting in 2024. to avoid the same scenario Again.

    In Georgia, which is not among the battleground states with party registration, a record 2.1 million people voted early in person or by mail. North Carolina also broke early voting records.

    “We are doing much better in our share of early voting in all battleground states than we were two or four years ago,” Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary, said in a statement, adding that Trump was “well positioned for victory.” On November 5th.”

    The Harris campaign downplayed Republican early voting gains, pointing to a surge in Democratic early voting during the 2020 pandemic and Trump’s new emphasis on early voting this year.

    “There is no indication that these early results point to a broader increase in GOP participation in this election,” said Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt. “Instead, Trump no longer openly mocks early voting as he did in 2020, so many of his core supporters now prefer to use that method.”

    The Harris campaign also cited public voter file data showing that many Republicans who cast ballots in early 2024 were 2020 Election Day voters. The campaign says it is also encouraging turnout among Black voters in Detroit and Black women in Georgia, among other trends.

    USA Today/University of Suffolk pollThe survey, conducted between October 14-18, revealed that Harris was ahead with 63-34 percent among those who voted for Trump. Voters who say they plan to wait until Election Day to vote likely favor Trump by 52%-35%.

    McDonald, the Election Lab president, said that while the Trump campaign has reason to be pleased with Republican early votes, it’s too early to draw firm conclusions for the early voting period.

    For example, he said, efforts to roll back the black vote in North Carolina have not yet begun, and young voters often wait until the final week of in-person early voting. Those factors should boost early voting numbers for Democrats in the Tar Heel State, he said.

    “What’s that going to mean? It’s going to be really hard to say,” McDonald said, adding that the real question is how many fewer Republicans will vote on Election Day after most Republicans vote early. “This will be the wild card. How red is Election Day?”

    Reach out to Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison.

    Harry
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