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US 2024 voting patterns by the numbers
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US 2024 voting patterns by the numbers

Groups that traditionally vote Democratic voted for Trump in greater numbers than in 2020. But the “cat ladies” remained loyal to Harris. Findings from post-election polls.

The voting behavior of various population groups in the United States varies greatly.

The voting behavior of various population groups in the United States varies greatly.

Illustration by Roland Shaw / New Zealand

Four years ago, Americans under 30 clearly voted for Democrat Joe Biden, while less than 40 percent voted for Republican Donald Trump. That changed today: In Tuesday’s vote, Trump won by 10 percentage points among the youngest voting groups. Even among those ages 30 to 39, the increase was 5 percentage points. Older people showed voting patterns similar to those seen four years ago. These figures come from AP news agency post-vote surveys.

The clear generational differences that were evident four years ago have narrowed significantly. Different age groups voted very similarly on Tuesday. Democrats retained a clear majority only among very young voters under 24.

Experts had expected a relatively large gender gap ahead of the election. And in fact, post-vote polls show a clear gap. However, this difference increased slightly compared to previous years. Clearly, Kamala Harris was able to mobilize female voters less effectively than she had hoped.

Harris has a strong focus on the issue of abortion. However, if the Supreme Court decides Roe v. in 2022. The overturning of the Wade decision and the subsequent tightening of abortion laws in many states clearly did not push women to refuse en masse to vote for Trump. Overall, voting patterns among women roughly match those in 2020.

Polls ahead of the US election suggested Trump could make gains among Black men who traditionally vote Democratic. Trump even declared during the election campaign: “I love black men!”

The charm offensive appears to be working, as the proportion of Trump voters among Black men has doubled compared to 2020.

Trump has also made gains among Latinos despite his anti-immigrant rhetoric, harsh immigration policy proposals and comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s racist slurs against Puerto Ricans at a Trump event.

However, ethnic minorities generally tend to lean toward Democrats. Black women, in particular, voted loyally Democratic again, this time around. The Latino male vote was almost evenly split between Trump and Harris.

During the election campaign, Harris was criticized by Muslim Americans for her stance on the Middle East conflict and her support for Israel. However, this did not lead to a significant shift towards Trump among Muslim voters. In fact, the voter share among Muslims fell by 4 percentage points. Even the Mormon population voted less for Trump than in 2020.

According to post-election polls, Harris’ share of voters among Muslims fell by 1 percentage point, from 64 percent to 63 percent. About 6 percent of Muslims voted for a third candidate, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein was the most popular alternative with 3 percent. So there were some protest votes, but they did not represent a major shift in voting behavior. Overall, communities with Christian faith were more likely to vote for Trump, while other communities were more likely to vote for Harris.

Other demographics show similar patterns: Voters with only a high school diploma were more likely to vote for Trump, while those with a master’s degree were more likely to vote for Harris. These patterns were even more pronounced compared to 2020.

In terms of income, an interesting pattern emerged: High-income earners and the poorest segments of the population voted Democrat, while the middle class tended to vote Republican. There have been only slight changes here; High-income earners voted more strongly for Trump in 2020 (47%), while poorer people voted slightly less so (42%).

Unlike 2020, this year’s survey asked whether voters had a cat or a dog living in their home. This was added after old video clips went viral in which Trump’s vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance insulted childless women by calling them “childless cat women” and said they were not invested in the future of the country because they were childless. Poll results show that the majority of cat-owning women voted for Harris.

However, these figures did not differ from women’s voting behavior in general. In contrast, dog owners and men who own cats are more Republican-minded. In households without pets, people tend to vote Democrat.

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