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According to September minutes, BOJ saw positive economic signs despite signaling a pause
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According to September minutes, BOJ saw positive economic signs despite signaling a pause

TOKYO: Many Bank of Japan policymakers agreed that the economy was making progress in meeting the conditions needed to raise interest rates further, even as they supported a pause until global market uncertainties ease, according to minutes of their September meeting.

The nine-member panel also discussed how to improve the way the BOJ communicates policy intent to markets; One board member floated the idea of ​​disclosing each member’s predictions about the future interest rate path, according to minutes released Wednesday.

The debate underscores the difficulty the BOJ faces in weighing external risks such as increasingly positive signs on the economy, volatile financial markets and uncertainty about the global economic outlook.

“Many members said wages were clearly increasing” and saw the need to examine whether inflation-adjusted wages would remain positive in the long term.

“Several members said steady progress was seen in companies’ efforts to pass on rising labor costs, mainly for services,” the minutes said. One member was quoted as saying that the driver of inflation was gradually shifting from import costs to wages.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said Japan needs to see wages rise sustainably, leading to price increases for services, before the central bank will consider raising interest rates again.

While the BOJ kept interest rates steady at 0.25 percent at the September meeting, Ueda signaled that he was in no rush to raise borrowing costs further as recession fears in the United States kept markets on edge and clouded the global economic outlook.

According to the minutes, “Several members said the BOJ could spend time examining the effects from overseas and market developments,” as the recent recovery in the yen would reduce inflationary pressure from rising import costs.

According to the minutes, one member said that the BOJ should postpone raising interest rates until foreign and market uncertainties decrease, while another member called for the need to focus on downside risks to the economy.

However, a third member said that the BOJ “finds it appropriate to raise interest rates even if markets are unstable”, adding that the central bank should raise its policy target to 1 percent from the second half of fiscal 2025.

At its next meeting in October, the BOJ kept policy steady but said risks to the US economy had eased somewhat, leaving the door open for a short-term interest rate hike.

While a small majority of economists surveyed by Reuters between October 3 and 11 expect the BOJ to give up on increasing interest rates this year, the majority expect an increase by March.