Why are Indian policymakers and the State Department’s mandarins watching the 2024 US Presidential Election with eagle eyes and bated breath? The answer may seem simple: Election results could affect Indo-US relations. Really?

Answering this question is not as easy as it seems. US foreign policy is generally viewed as something that does not suddenly change with the change of person sitting in the Oval Office in the White House. This is a bipartisan issue on most issues.

Bipartisan Approach to India

Both Democratic and Republican candidates agree that India is useful and indispensable in many ways to protect US interests in Asia and to expand and strengthen its geopolitical importance in the world.

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While Washington wants to stop China’s expansionism in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific Region, it has plans to use New Delhi to defeat Beijing.

Will India Checkmate China?

With the Quadrilateral Dialogue or the Quad gaining ground and being tagged as the Asian NATO, India has no parallel in stopping the dragon in its own game of Chinese checkers.

At a time when Beijing has rejected the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and turned back Japan’s maritime advances, India will be the one country China will find hard to ignore.

The Importance of India in the Game of Chinese Checkers

Although India has no territorial claims anywhere in the South China Sea and has a less important sea route through the region, New Delhi has begun to assert itself recently. Beijing has repeatedly asked New Delhi to stay away from the controversy, but to no avail.

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Political analysts believe that India wants to take advantage of the South China Sea dispute and side with countries like Japan and the Philippines to put pressure on China so that it can extract concessions for its own geopolitical advantage.

India-China Border Dispute: The Deciding Factor

For a country with a disputed border of 4,057 kilometers and an unresolved LAC passing through sensitive states like Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, exploiting this situation is quite obvious. It is therefore not surprising that New Delhi is showing increasing interest in the South China Sea in the name of free navigation rights.

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The Indo-Pacific region is another region where New Delhi can help the US in checkmating China. The United States has traced its footprint from Guam to Diego Garcia to Africa, or from the Cape of Good Hope to small islands far out in the ocean; China is increasing its presence and expanding its importance through the Belt and Road Initiative.

How Will India Help the USA in the Indo-Pacific?

It will take some time for Beijing to catch up with the United States, but the dragon has awakened and is making serious progress in the region. India can join hands with Australia and New Zealand and help the US without joining AUKUS or the Australia-UK-US bloc.

Whoever wins, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the new US President will have to deepen relations with India.

Will India Benefit from the Sino-US Trade War?

Political analysts believe Donald Trump may take a more hawkish approach towards Beijing on geopolitical and economic issues. The Republican president, committed to the slogans of ‘America First’ and ‘Make America Great Again’, will most likely turn these slogans into reality.

A US-China trade war with new tariffs on Chinese imports will likely begin soon, perhaps within weeks of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. His tough approach towards India is as he expressed many times during the election campaign.

Even though India’s exports to the US have fallen due to rising tariffs and a hostile trade environment, it could help Indian trade in a new and different way. New Delhi can use the anti-China trade ecosystem in the US to increase its own trade with the country, with certain adjustments. Although it cannot replace the dragon, India can certainly reduce the deficit it may face due to increased customs duties in this country.

Indian foreign ministry officials are also watching the US Presidential Elections carefully because if Donald Trump is elected, he will likely block the H1B visa available to Indian citizens, especially those in the IT sector. If the Republican leader becomes US President, Indians may face fewer visas. This may affect remittances as well as the earnings of IT and ITES sector workers.

Will Remittances from the USA Decline?

People from the Indian diaspora living in the US sent $125 billion to their countries of origin in 2023-24. Remittances received by India increased from 87 billion in 2020-21 to $89 billion in 21-22 and $110 billion in 2022-23. Indian policymakers think this could happen if Donald Trump is elected and implements his policy to control the influx of immigrants.

Indian mandarins wait with their fingers crossed but bated breath. Let US voters decide.