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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are nearly tied in all seven swing states on the eve of Election Day; Here they are tasked with courting a diverse coalition of voters with unique priorities and varying political leanings.

Basic Information

North Carolina: Rural voters remain loyal to Trump while suburbanites shift left

A growing population of voters with bachelor’s degrees who generally support Democrats, combined with a shift to the left among suburban voters, is widely credited for North Carolina’s newfound swing state status, for years a reliably red state.

The state also has a significant share of Black voters who lean more Democratic than the rest of the county, but Harris still votes demographically below President Joe Biden’s 2020 thresholds. These losses are offset somewhat by increased support for Harris among suburban supporters; According to one survey, about 51% support him compared to 39% of those who support Biden, which is on par with the national average. Five Thirty Eight analysis survey trends.

The state also has more rural voters than any other swing state, and those districts have become increasingly Republican since 2008, according to Five Thirty Eight.

Pennsylvania: Philadelphia’s ‘collar counties’ may decide election

The share of white voters without a college degree, a key Trump demographic, has declined in every swing state since 2008, according to the Brookings Institution. analysisbut they still make up more than 50% of the voting-eligible population in each of the three “blue wall” states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan). At the same time, fewer people are expected to vote this year (38% of total voters compared to 51% in 2008).

The share of college-educated white voters, who are increasingly Democratic nationally, has increased by eight points in Pennsylvania since 2008, and they are expected to make up 32 percent of the national electorate this year. 2008, NPR reported.

In Philadelphia’s four suburban “collar counties,” where the population exceeds Philadelphia and Pittsburgh combined, Biden more than exceeded his vote total, making up for his loss of Democratic voters in Philadelphia in 2020 by Hillary Clinton’s margins (even though both won). More than 105,000 votes; If Harris continues this trend Could help win Pennsylvania and the election as a whole.

Harris’ campaign is also targeting a significant portion of Pennsylvania Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley in the primary (16% of GOP voters), Politico Playbook reportedHe notes that the campaign believes that if five to ten percent of voters support him, it could swing the state in his favor.

Georgia: More Black Voters But Less Support Harris Vs. Biden in 2020

The state has the largest share of all swing states of Black voters, a key demographic group for Harris, rising from 29% of the voting population in Georgia in 2008 to 33% in 2024, according to NPR. Harris trailed Biden by eight points among Black voters in Georgia in 2020, while Trump gained five points. Five Thirty Eight analysis. At the same time, Trump has lost nearly four points since 2020 among white voters in Georgia. Georgia’s shift from red to purple over the past decade is attributed to diversity in the Atlanta metro area, which accounts for 60% of the vote in Georgia and where the population increased by 15% between 2010 and 2020 even as the white population decreased by 15%. by 2% census data.

College-educated voters in the Atlanta suburbs also helped Biden win there in 2020, according to the New York Times analysis.

Michigan: Candidates Compete for Unity Votes, Arab Population May Boycott Harris

Like six other swing states, Michigan has more college-educated voters who are increasingly Democratic than in 2008, and 13 percent of voters Black – typically a strong point for Democrats, but this year little clean up. Candidates are also struggling to win support from unionized workers in Michigan, where about 21% of households have at least one union member. Brookings. Trump has tried to appeal to rank-and-file union members by criticizing the Biden administration’s policies to promote electric vehicles, but Harris has won the support of the United Auto Workers union and leads Trump by 20 points among UAW workers in Michigan. ONE October survey by the union.

The “undecided” movement protesting U.S. support for Israel in its war with Gaza poses a greater threat to Harris in Michigan than perhaps any other state, as 4% of Michigan residents identify as Arab American. The group voted for Biden by a 24-point margin nationally in 2020. Five Thirty Eightbut one questionnaire The Arab American Institute found Trump leads Harris by one point nationally.

Wisconsin: Rural Voters Shift to Democrats, Urban Areas Shift Right

Rural voters in Wisconsin, the whitest of the seven swing states, have moved toward Democrats but are still predominantly Republican, though less so than in rural areas nationally. Although urban areas have moved to the right, they still support Democrats by significant margins. Suburban voters favor Harris despite Trump win in 2020 Five Thirty Eight analysis.

Nevada: Latino Voters Shift Right, Culinary Union Supports Harris

Independents and Latino voters are hugely important in both Nevada and Arizona, and both groups have grown steadily in recent years.

In Nevada, the share of Latinos increased by 24% between 2010 and 2020, while the white population decreased by 11%, according to census data. According to a recent report from NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC, Harris holds a 14-point advantage among Latino voters in Nevada. questionnaireThat’s the smallest margin for a Democrat in the last four presidential elections.

The number of independent voters who are not registered with either party makes up the largest share of voters in Nevada. Nevada IndependentThe share of adults who consider themselves independent (43%) has reached a record high and is slightly Republican, mirroring national trends, according to Gallup. to create.

The Culinary Union, the state’s largest union, backed Harris, who echoed Trump’s promise to repeal tip taxes; This could result in both candidates receiving votes; But Trump was the first to introduce the proposal and heavily supported it in Nevada.

Arizona: Latino Voter Population More Than Doubled

The share of Latino voters in Arizona has more than doubled since 2000, reaching 25% of the population. Latino Policy and Politics Instituteand Trump leads among demographic groups in some polls; October Marist survey That left him with a seven-point lead, a sharp drop from Biden’s 24-point lead among Latinos in 2020.

According to the report, the number of independents here is now more than Democrats. Republic of Arizona.

Big Number

2.4 points. That’s where Trump leads in Arizona, the widest lead between two candidates in seven states. According to statistician Nate Silver, Trump’s lead is less than a point in Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Trump is ahead by just over a point in Georgia and North Carolina, and Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Silver Bulletin.

Why Does the Trump-Harris Gender Gap Matter?

Significantly more women support Harris in every swing state than Trump, who won the male vote in all seven battleground states. According to Brookings, the margins would help Harris win in five of seven states if turnout among both genders is repeated in 2020, as more women than men vote in every state except Wisconsin (where turnout is evenly split between men and women). Organisation analysis the so-called “gender gap”. But if turnout rates repeat in 2020, it won’t be enough to overcome Trump’s advantage among men in Georgia and Arizona.

Key Background

Biden won all six of the seven battleground states in 2020, where 13 states were considered swing states. Despite Trump’s popular vote win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, he was largely credited with Trump trailing Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida; The total of these states amounted to 46 delegate votes. As election day approaches, Trump’s chances of getting 270 votes before Harris increase. Assuming Biden wins all the non-battleground states he won in 2020, Harris’s most obvious path to victory is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Washington, which have voted for the same presidential candidate since 1992 and always for a Democrat (with one exception). Winning Wisconsin. 2016). Trump, meanwhile, has a chance to win the Electoral College by sweeping Georgia and Arizona, where Biden received fewer than 15,000 votes each, and taking one of the three “blue wall” states.

Tangent

Reflecting voter priorities nationally, more undecided state voters say their top election issues are inflation and rising costs, followed by immigration and political extremism, according to Ipsos questionnaire It is held in late September and early October. While voters trust Trump more than Harris on his handling of both immigration and the economy, they prefer Harris on threats to health care and democracy.

Further Reading

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads 2 Points in New Poll as Polls Tighten Ahead of Election (Forbes)

2024 Election Changing State Polls: Trump Leads in Nevada, Harris Leads in Michigan and Arizona, According to Latest Polls (Updated) (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads in Latest Poll – While Harris Struggles with Latinos (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Race Nearly Tied in 3 New Polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Erases Harris’ Lead (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads, 2 Others Show Tie in Latest Poll (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads by 2 Points in 2 New Polls (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 1 Point in Latest Poll (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: New Poll Reveals Result As GOP Aims to Take Back State (Forbes)