As the 2024 presidential election approaches, voters are demanding more information about what policies might look like under Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Experts predict that agricultural policy could take two very different paths depending on the outcome of the election: more tariffs and subsidies for big farmers under Trump, or climate investments and expanded crop insurance under Harris. Daily Yonder reports.

To know what might happen under the second Trump administration, clues can be found from his first presidency. The question for the Harris administration will be how long the new Democratic president will continue the policies of his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Trump’s Tariffs and Subsidies

Early in his term, former President Trump withdrew from a free trade agreement the United States signed in 2016 that would have reduced trade barriers for domestic manufacturers. Shortly thereafter, Trump began imposing a series of tariffs on imports from almost every country in the world. Many countries retaliated by imposing their own tariffs on US products.

This ultimately led to a trade dispute with China, which led to the imposition of high tariffs on agricultural products, primarily soybeans and pork products.

In an effort to support farmers losing business from global consumers, Trump authorized $14.5 billion in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) market facilitation program to provide payments to farmers affected by “unfair foreign retaliatory tariffs.”

It also gave the green light to its use Commodity Credit InstitutionA loan program that USDA can use to pay farmers without requesting appropriations from Congress.

“This is more like an entitlement program,” said Jonathan Coppess, a University of Illinois politics professor and former administrator of the USDA Farm Service Agency.

“So you can sign up and be eligible to get paid, and then the seizers just pay off the debt, basically pay off the credit card,” he said.

That gave the USDA a lot of flexibility, but with the market facilitation program and the payments farmers already received from programs in the 2018 farm bill, Coppess said some payments were made to the same people, many of whom operate on a large scale. operations that do not require extra money.

This is an issue that extends well beyond the Trump administration. Large-scale federal support for agriculture was first implemented in the 1930s to protect farmers from volatile markets caused by tariffs, natural disasters, or economic recessions. But in recent years the majority of this spending has gone to the largest and richest farms.

“Not only do they get a disproportionate amount of revenue, they also get a disproportionate amount of the safety net,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in a Daily Yonder interview.

Biden’s Rural Policy Goes Beyond Agriculture

Vilsack said the Biden administration is trying to grapple with how to direct more federal resources to smaller farms. Millions of dollars can be obtained through this channel. American Rescue Plan Act expanding small farm operations and supporting farmers markets and community supported agriculture initiatives. Inflation Reduction Act USDA allocated $19.5 billion to conservation programs that promote climate-friendly agriculture.

President Biden has invested more broadly in rural communities. Bipartisan Infrastructure ActIt finances broadband infrastructure, modernized wastewater and drinking water systems, and road and bridge development, to name a few.

The Biden administration also took over Trump’s coronavirus food aid program. supplied $19 billion in aid to farmers and ranchers at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden administration extended Program that is no longer used in 2021.

But Biden’s time in the White House has also been defined by protracted farm bill negotiations that are nearly a year late.

Farm Bill Headache

The farm bill goes far beyond supporting individual farmers. For example, it finances food stamp benefits and rural development such as sewage and drinking water needs. The bill is reauthorized by Congress every five years, but approval often takes longer.

This is what happened with the 2023 agriculture bill. Fierce partisan debates over how much money should be spent on which programs have stalled negotiations, and nearly a year after the 2018 farm bill expired, a new five-year farm bill still has not been passed despite proposals from both countries. House and Senate.

“I think the inability among farm states to complete the 2023 farm bill shows tremendous dysfunction and reluctance to come to the negotiating table,” said Joe Maxwell, co-founder of Farm Action and former lieutenant governor of Missouri. “Both sides are getting stronger.”

This dysfunction could increase public disillusionment with politics, especially as the 2024 presidential election approaches, Maxwell said.

2025 and Beyond

Agricultural experts foresee two very different realities for agricultural policy depending on the results of this election.

Another Trump administration would likely impose more tariffs on China. It could also provide more subsidies to the largest agricultural operations, according to Scott Faber, senior vice president of government affairs for the Environmental Working Group.

He’s worried about what the farm bill proposals from Rep. Glenn Thompson, a Republican who chairs the House Agriculture Committee, and John Boozman, the ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, would mean for small farmers.

“The House bill provides a road map for what Republicans can do, especially if they control the entire Congress and the White House,” Faber said. The proposed bill will increase reference prices for only a few agricultural products, such as peanuts, rice and cotton. This means farmers are guaranteed payment through the USDA Price Loss Coverage program if the market value of these products falls below the reference price. But it leaves out many other commodity farmers, especially those with smaller operations.

Critics worry that if the House farm bill proposal becomes law, large farm operations will be double-crossed on different subsidy programs. “Although farm bankruptcies are at their lowest level in 20 years, the increase in farm subsidies will be the largest increase in more than a generation,” Faber said.

In contrast, the Democratic farm bill proposal from Senate Agriculture Committee chairwoman Debbie Stabenow would incorporate climate-smart agriculture investments created by the Inflation Reduction Act into the new farm bill.

This would also expand access to crop insurance, which is difficult for many farmers to obtain due to high premium costs. Stabenow suggests increase Providing federal support for farmers’ premium spending and making access to higher levels of insurance coverage more affordable.

While Congress is the main driving force behind agricultural policy, the president can direct that power in specific ways.

Throughout his four years, President Biden has led Congress on climate action and rural investments. Minister Vilsack said he was sure that Vice President Harris was aware of these steps taken by the Biden administration.

He also said Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz has echoed some of those farm policies as governor of Minnesota, which could mean he’ll be prioritized at the federal level if Harris and Walz are elected to the White House in November.

“Based on my current experience with them, I’m confident they understand the value and importance (of investing in small farmers),” Vilsack said.

this story produced by Daily Yonder and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.