CNN senior data correspondent Harry Enten discussed the factors that indicate a potential victory for Vice President Kamala Harris next Tuesday.

Enten touted Harris’ victory on Thursday, explaining how she is the more popular candidate (who has historically tended to be re-elected) and also how Democratic candidates have performed better in recent special elections than President Biden did in the 2020 election. It’s an indication that Harris can do the same.

“The signs are clear as day,” Enten said at the beginning of the presentation, noting that these are the obvious factors ahead if Harris wins.

CNN DATA GURU SAYS HARRIS FIGHTS ‘POOR PERFORMANCE’ FROM YOUNG VOTERS AFTER TAYLOR SWIFT’S CONFIRMATION

CNN senior data correspondent Harry Enten breaks down signs marking Vice President Kamala Harris’ victory on Election Day.

Enten started with the simple fact that the more popular candidate has won every presidential election since 1956, except for the 2016 election, which was won by the less popular Trump.

“And the No. 1 sign is that Harris is, simply put, more popular than Donald Trump. Her net positive rating is higher than Trump’s. She’s at minus two, Trump’s at minus seven. I went way back and looked, from 1956 to now.” “Does the more popular person usually win in the polls? The answer is definitely yes.”

He continued, “The more popular candidate won 16 times. Only once did the less popular candidate win. I’ll point out that was Donald Trump in 2016. But of course, don’t forget Hillary Clinton “He wasn’t very popular either.”

He summarized the finding: “But here’s the bottom line: Kamala Harris is consistently more popular than Donald Trump in the polls. She consistently has a higher net positive rating than Donald Trump, and the candidate who is normally more popular generally goes on to win on Election Day.”

The next sign Enten discussed was that Democratic candidates have performed an average of two points better in special election races over the past two years than they did in the results of the last presidential election.

“So it’s a good sign that these Democrats are outperforming Joe Biden. Historically speaking, there’s a correlation between how people perform in special elections — especially in this polarized age — and how they will ultimately perform in the Presidential election.”

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Enten then addressed the fact that Democratic candidates are doing well in the 2022 Midterm elections, even though only 27 percent of Americans see the country in bad shape. on the right track and Biden had an approval rating of just 42 percent at the time; these were factors that often signaled a ruling party’s defeat at the ballot box.

“You can see that right here in 2024. Only 28% say the country is on the right track, while 40% approve of Joe Biden’s job. But remember, in 2022, those metrics looked very, very similar—even a little less so. “I believed it was on the way, I approved of Joe Biden’s job a little bit more, but the numbers are very similar here,” he said.

“And remember,” he added, “even though the top metrics for Democrats in 2022 are bad, the White House party has performed historically well in that interim period.”

She then concluded her argument by saying, “The bottom line, Kate, is that a lot of Democrats believe that when voters vote, they will win. And because abortion is a much bigger issue this time around, historically speaking, Democrats were in 2022. Historically, we’ve done well.”

“Perhaps the Democrats will surprise a lot of people and do historically well next Tuesday.”

This presentation followed Enten’s episode from the day before; This section included details of signs that indicate a condition. former President Trump victory On November 5th.

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