Who will win the 2024 presidential election? It depends on which leading tipster you ask.

JUMP HERE: EXPERTS WHO THINK HARRIS WILL WIN I EXPERTS WHO THINK TRUMP WILL WIN I SURVEYS

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Polls show Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris facing off against Republican rival former President Donald Trump nationally and in several oscillation states.

Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University known for accurately predicting the presidential election, said: He believes in Vice President Kamala Harris will win. He first made his prediction in September and said this week that he stands by his call.

“I don’t change my predictions on the fly based on polls or conventional wisdom,” Lichtman told our sister station. FOX 5DCThis week. “If I did that, I’d be useless as a forecaster. I’d better just stick to polls.”

To make his predictions, Lichtman relies on what he calls the “13 Keys to the White House” rather than traditional voting. Four of the keys are based on the candidate’s politics, seven on his performance, and two on his personality.

“I stand by my 2016 prediction, which pollsters almost unanimously opposed,” added Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win over Hillary Clinton.

One New York Times column Last week, longtime Democratic strategist James Carville also said he was “confident” Harris would win.

“Today, I pull up my stool to the political poker table to drop my chips: America, everything will be okay. Ms. Harris will be elected the next President of the United States,” Carville wrote.

Nate Silver, statistician and founder five thirty eightlast week he wrote: Another column for the New York Times His “gut instincts” say Trump will win.

But Silver also cautioned that “a 50-50 prediction really means 50-50,” and polling data suggests the race could actually go either way.

“Don’t be surprised if there’s a chance that one of the candidates gets a relatively clear-cut win, or if there are bigger changes from 2020 than most people’s gut instinct would tell them,” Silver added.

Trump tells FiveThirtyEight, which uses polling, economic and demographic data to research likely election results Won 52 times out of 100 In simulations of the 2024 race.

Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco and sometimes described as “the most accurate economist in the world”, also predicted a Trump win; Republicans also predicted they would take back control of Congress with a “clean sweep.”

Barraud, 38, has been ranked by Bloomberg as the best economic forecaster for the US economy every year since 2012. FOX News.

Barraud told Business Insider that if Trump wins, with Congress divided along party lines, his ability to provide tax cuts for companies and households could be hampered. He added that Trump will therefore focus on tariffs that could harm global growth.

Harris and Trump remain almost tied According to the latest polls, election day is less than a week away. While Harris holds a razor-thin lead nationally, Trump appears to be gaining ground in key states.

Accordingly 270winHarris continues to dominate national polls. An average of more than 17 national polls showed Harris up 1 percentage point as of Wednesday, Oct. 30.

Polls in seven key battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election show Trump with a slight lead in most swing states.

All surveys are extremely close to each other and within the margin of error.

Arizona polls

An average of nine polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, show Trump with a 2.2% lead in Arizona, a state with 11 electoral votes.

Georgia polls

Six average polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, show Trump with a 2% lead in Georgia, a swing state with 16 electoral votes.

michigan polls

An average of nine polls, the most recent on Oct. 30, show Harris with a 1.6% lead in Michigan, a swing state with 15 electoral votes.

Nevada polls

An average of seven polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, show Trump with a 0.4 percentage point lead in Nevada, a swing state with six electoral votes.

North Carolina polls

An average of nine polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, show Trump with a 1.4% lead in North Carolina, a swing state with 16 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania polls

An average of eight polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, show Trump with a 0.5 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania, a swing state with 19 delegate votes. Harris was in Pennsylvania the day before and showed just how close the race is in the Keystone State.

Wisconsin polls

An average of seven polls, the most recent on Oct. 29, show Trump with a 0.2% lead in Wisconsin. Harris was ahead by 0.4% in Wisconsin polls the day before.

Will Win 270 Election Maps

It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click on the states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election prediction. Create a specific match by clicking on the party and/or names near the election vote counter. Source: 270win.

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How many days until election day?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 5, 6 days after Wednesday.

What time do the polls open on election day?

Polls will open at 6 a.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5.

What time do the polls open on election day?

Voting will end at 21:00 on election day, Tuesday, November 5.

Election resources