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The early voting vote changed the math for Republicans this election cycle
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The early voting vote changed the math for Republicans this election cycle

The Republican early voting vote changed the math of this election cycle among low-propensity voters, allowing President-elect Donald Trump to mount a historic comeback for a second term in the White House.

The presidential race was called for Trump early Wednesday morning; Nearly all states have been summoned for the former president, but a few are still pending. Republicans and a leading pollster explained how a focus on getting low-propensity voters to vote early helped Trump win battleground states.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen explained that early voting has become a new tool for them and Republicans have decided to use it as well. “I’ve heard a lot of Republicans say, ‘I don’t like early voting, I don’t think we should do it, but if we want to change the rules, we have to win.’ So, you know, I don’t think it’s a problem that’s going to go away, but it’s changed the game,” Rasmussen said.John Solomon Reports” podcast on Wednesday.

“We are completely in the game”

“This idea of ​​early voting is a relatively new phenomenon,” Rasmussen said. “When I started voting, there was nothing but absentee ballots. And in 2020, because of the pandemic, it took on a new form in ways we could never have imagined a few decades ago.

“But Republicans are fully in the game now, and I think that’s changing that,” he continued. “And, you know, we’re talking about some of these races still going to be very, very close, and if you assume that a small portion of early voters may have missed voting on Election Day – so this happens people wake up, they plan to vote and they get sick or something happens at work; Therefore, those who accumulate these votes early are one of the keys to this victory. “We’re going back to the basics of economics, a few other things that underpin it, but the tactical part of early voting was another factor that contributed to this victory.”

Former New York congressman Lee Zeldin (R) said on the “Just the News, No Noise” TV show Wednesday that America First Works (AFW) is focusing on 47 battleground state counties in its ground game to get low-propensity voters to cast their ballots. .

Zeldin said AFW focused on “low propensity voters, no-disposition voters, people who didn’t even vote in 2020, but we knew if they showed up they were going to vote for President Trump and we took them out.” What started as an effort targeting 19 counties with America First Works eventually evolved into Project 47, expanding to “47 counties” in these battleground states, knocking on doors — not just dropping off literature and walking, but chatting, too. ”

He explained that planning for this started in April. meeting We met with “more than 50 conservative groups, more than 80 conservative leaders” to discuss “what we need to do with the base vote, what we need to do to secure the vote, the cause, the legislation.” Zeldin added that the coalition is working together on get-out-the-vote efforts in swing states.

“As I mentioned before, in all the battleground states, at the end of the day, we knocked on millions of doors and had these conversations with 47 counties,” he said. “We were registering voters, 10 of 1000s of new voters.”

“Looking at the early voting numbers in all of the battleground states, how great it was to see that President Trump was heading into Election Day better than he was four years ago,” Zeldin said, adding that “they are working as closely as we are.” Trump campaign allowed” and the Republican National Committee, which has been very focused on election integrity this year.

The importance of voting

“Even if we won, we have to talk about the after action report, what did it do?” he stated. “What should we do going forward to make sure we continue to do the things that work, that we learn our lessons not just when we lose the race but when we win it?”

AFW Executive Director Ashley Hayek said:John Solomon ReportsA podcast debuted Wednesday about conservative organizations trying to improve their ground game this election cycle. Following the results of the 2022 and 2023 elections, Hayek said: “It was very clear that we needed a new plan for the country that could focus on early voting and really target no voters and voters with a low propensity to vote. We can grow our base for those who are unlikely to go to the polls in 2020.”

AFW’s focus, in line with other conservative organizations, was to effectively communicate the importance of voting to low-profile voters.

“These elections have consequences and, you know, your $4 orange juice is now $8. And our country is no longer safe from fentanyl, drug cartels, and human traffickers; So how can we get these stories?” Hayek said. “And that was the initial idea, targeting these voters, and then that turned into movement building.”

“And we have so many incredible conservative organizations, like Turning Point Action, Chase the Vote, AMAC Action, Tea Party Patriots, Hunter Nation, and if we can all work together like never before, we’re 1,000 times more effective, which is exactly what we’re going to do this election.” “We saw it.”

5.7 million voters contact the key to success

Hayek explained that getting people to vote is achieved by treating them as customers rather than voters. “So the idea was to stop treating voters as just voters and start having real conversations and start treating it as a job. “Now our voters are our customers, and we need to figure out how to have real conversations with people and get polling information,” he said.

“We contacted more than 5.7 million voters and interviewed approximately 3.2 million people in total. But we were coming back; some places we would go back two or three times, other places maybe once because they were all in, we identified them and had a great conversation.

“We were able to get over 752,000 surveys where people took the time to answer our questions, which was absolutely phenomenal,” Hayek continued. “We also launched a very specific messaging program where 50+ people can also join the conversation via text message, so either at the door, having these surveys done, or via text message, we were having real conversations with people about the issues they care about.

“We were able to get 82 billion data points from 74 million voters because of the infrastructure that we created. So, the amount of information that we were able to collect was absolutely incredible, and now we’re looking forward to what’s going to happen in the first 100 days of the new administration, where we can educate people through those personal relationships and continue to take action on these policies next year.” ?”

According to AFW’s data, the eight states where early voting efforts were focused were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Trump has so far won the presidential races in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to Associated Press. Arizona and Nevada have not yet been called by news outlet, but Trump is leading in both states.

Hayek explained that overall, in these eight states, the ratio of absentee or early voters to door-knocked voters was 40%. The number of people who voted and whose doors were knocked on was 1 million 285 thousand 690. The total number of people who voted and received messages was 3,131,141.

Georgia had the highest rate of absentee or early voters compared to those whose doors were knocked on. “The number of people knocking on the door and voting in Georgia was 190,272, a rate of 61%,” Hayek said. “This was one of the best situations we’ve ever been in.”

According to AFW’s data, the total of people who received messages about voting in 2020 and did not vote but voted in this election is 138,717 in Arizona, 111,829 in Georgia, 59,661 in Michigan, 122,574 in North Carolina, 54,216 in Nevada, It was 107 in Nevada. in Ohio, 83,320 in Pennsylvania, and 36,416 in Wisconsin.

Hayek also said her group is “definitely looking” at the 2026 election.