TThe world will have just over two months to prepare for Donald Trump’s return to the White House and any new foreign policies that will come with it. A first presidency defined by trade wars, isolationism and deep skepticism of the EU and NATO might seem to offer a preview of what could happen in the second term. But those close to the president-elect say his trademark volatility is all the world needs to rely on.

“Predictability is a terrible thing,” Trump’s former intelligence director Richard Grenell, who is rumored to play a key role in the next administration, said recently. Finance Times. “Of course the other side (America’s enemies) wants predictability. Trump is not predictable, and we Americans like that.”

Still, experts are spotting signs of what Trump’s next presidency could spell for Gaza, Ukraine, Europe and beyond.

A New Uncertainty in the Middle East

Of all the foreign policy issues at the forefront this U.S. election cycle, perhaps the most pressing is Israel’s ongoing wars against Iran-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, where more than 43,000 Palestinians and 3,000 Lebanese have been killed under Israeli bombardment. Embers told TIME In April, he said that if he had remained in office in 2020, the wars “would never have happened.” throughout the 2024 campaign he promised To end the violence and ensure peace in the region, even without giving any details. He simultaneously argued that Israel should be allowed to:finish the job”Also in Gaza reportedly He called on Netanyahu’s government to end the war until he returns to the White House.

What this indicates—pressure for a ceasefire or tacit approval for Israel to further its attacks—is open to interpretation, but observers are led by Trump’s remarkably deferential support for Israel during his first term. He has taken steps no previous Republican or Democrat President has ever approached, moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognizing the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as part of Israel.

Matt Duss, vice president of the Center for International Policy and former chief foreign policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders, says what’s probably most important to Trump is that the wars “stay out of the news,” “because they stay out of the news,” so the spotlight is on Trump. What he doesn’t like is having it on.”

“Ultimately, as we saw in his first term, he will delegate a lot of this work to his advisors like (David) Friedman and (Jared) Kushner, and we all know what their views are,” Duss adds. Trump’s former ambassador to Israel and his son-in-law and former advisor, both amplified calls For the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and the annexation of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Expectations for Trump in Israel widely preferred It is mixed among Israelis. “There’s this idea on the far right that with Trump, Israel will be free in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, and even Iran should be careful,” says Nimrod Novik of the Israel Policy Forum, and former Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres former senior advisor. “There is an expectation on the centre-left that Trump, unlike (President Joe) Biden, will not allow Netanyahu to push him around, which could leave Netanyahu facing his first serious choice dilemma between going against his own decision. messianic coalition partners or to an unpredictable Trump.

When it comes to Iran, Trump may be less willing to restrict Israel. His first term was defined by the maximum pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic. Trump not only withdrew agreement scrapping their nuclear programs and imposing new sanctions; He also ordered the assassination of the General, who was a very popular figure in Iran. Qassem Soleimani. Iran promised and apparently planned, To avenge this death by assassinating Trump. However, the rich Sunni kingdoms of the Gulf, who also see Iran as a threat, may not be ready for a fight.

“Trump and his national security team may struggle to find the same support in the region they had four years ago.” writes Jonathan Panikoff is director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and a former deputy national intelligence official for the Near East at the U.S. National Intelligence Council. Many wealthy Gulf state allies who may have previously applauded such efforts now — direct attacks Tensions between Israel and Iran threaten to escalate into a regional conflict and it is trying to defuse tensions with Tehran.

The signature foreign policy achievement of Trump’s first term may be the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements that normalized relations between Israel and some of its Arab neighbors. The war in Gaza jeopardizes efforts to expand these; particularly towards Saudi Arabia, which was thought to be on the verge of reaching a normalization agreement with Israel before the October 7 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people in the country. The Saudis have since confirmed that such an agreement could not be reached without a viable path to a Palestinian state.

At the beginning of his first term, Trump took it as an opportunity to show off his negotiating skills, calling it “the best.” final agreement.” But he seems to have cooled down on the idea of ​​a Palestinian state, which advisors like Friedman oppose. “There was a time when I thought two states could work,” Trump told TIME in April. “I think two states now will be very, very challenging.”

Putin Problem in Ukraine

Just as Trump promised to resolve the wars in the Middle East, he also announced that he would end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has been going on for more than two years. one day. Both he and the vice president-elect, Sen. JD Vance expressed antipathy to further US military aid to Ukraine and suggested that Kiev could be pressured into a ceasefire with Moscow, perhaps at the expense of some Ukrainian territory.

While there is Ukraine harbored fears As for what Trump’s second term will mean, the government has also expressed some optimism about the changes the Trump administration could bring; in particular, a move away from the relatively cautious approach of the Biden administration, which has frequently turned down Kiev’s demands for more air defenses and more air defenses. Long-range missiles for fear of escalating the conflict. Among the optimists is former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. a congratulatory note He attributed Trump’s victory to his record of taking “strong and decisive action”, adding: “I have no doubt that he will now do so at home and abroad, whether in the Middle East or in Ukraine.” Trump’s choices for senior administration positions could provide clarity.

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach to global affairs,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a congratulatory message. x post on Wednesday. “This is exactly the principle that can bring a just peace in Ukraine closer in practice.”

Read more: Ukraine’s Plan to Get Rid of Trump

Trump has long beenvery good relationshipRussian President Vladimir Putin, who is said to have met with many people seven times Since leaving the White House. But the Kremlin greeted his victory with equanimity, stating that the United States remained “a hostile country involved both directly and indirectly in the war against our state.”

More Spending Pressure for NATO

Among the biggest foreign policy bugs of Trump’s first term was whether NATO and its members were contributing fairly to the military alliance. During the election campaign, Trump made clear that although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had revived the alliance, he was not letting the issue go. stated obligations According to the agreement, it would not commit to defending countries that did not meet their commitment to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense. Vance recently confirmed again He stated that the Trump administration “will honor our NATO commitments” and emphasized that NATO “is not just a welfare customer.” “There must be a real alliance.”

Only 23 of the alliance’s members, or about two-thirds, are expected to meet the 2% threshold this year. But one expression Congratulating Trump, new NATO chief Mark Rutte said defense spending “is on a forward path across the Alliance”; He signaled that perhaps the targets could be set even higher in the future, possibly at 2.5% or even 3%. Some members have already exceeded these values, including the front-runners Poland, Latvia and Estonia.

In any case, Trump’s return to the White House has done nothing to quell the debate among European leaders over the continent’s strategic autonomy and the extent of dependence on an increasingly unreliable Washington. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, “While some claim that the future of Europe depends on American elections, it depends, above all, on us.” in question Ahead of the vote in the US. “Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.”

Tariffs and Possible Trade War for China

Trump campaigned on a promise to impose tariffs as high as 60% on all Chinese imports, which is expected to trigger a trade war with Beijing and possibly lead to retaliation against US businesses. (It also implemented a universal tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports.) While proponents of this plan argue that it would stimulate American manufacturing, some analysts warn that it could cost U.S. households because the tariffs would be passed on to consumers. much $2,600 per year.

Observers do not expect the president-elect to try to confront China on other issues of concern, such as continued U.S. support for Taiwan. In keeping with his traditional give-and-take approach to politics, Trump has previously expressed doubts about the merits of supporting Taiwan and suggested the self-governing island should move in that direction. Pay the USA for protection.