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Donald Trump’s decisive victory in a deeply divided country
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Donald Trump’s decisive victory in a deeply divided country

Donald Trump has won a decisive victory in a deeply divided country.

In doing so, the Republican president-elect exposed a fundamental weakness within the Democratic base and quelled concerns about his moral failings, becoming the first U.S. president to be convicted of a felony.

The Republican former president won the support of disillusioned voters with bold promises that America’s first fiery brand of economic populism and conservative culture would change their lives for the better.

But he will be put to the test immediately, and there is reason to believe that his plans for mass deportations and high tariffs could harm the very people who made his victory possible.

Still, he will enter the White House on January 20, 2025, with unquestionable power.

With votes still being counted, Trump could become the first Republican to win the popular vote in two decades.

The results have left Democrats facing an immediate and immediate reckoning, with no clear leader to unite the anti-Trump coalition and no clear plan to rebuild as an emboldened Trump prepares to retake Washington.

Here are some important takeaways from the elections:

– Donald Trump undermines Democrats’ coalition with modest changes

Black voters, men and women, formed the basis of the Democratic Party, and in recent years they have been joined by Latinos and young voters.

All three groups still preferred Democrat Kamala Harris. But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 115,000 voters, suggested Mr. Trump was making significant gains.

Voters under 30 represent a small share of the total electorate, but about half of them support Ms. Harris. That compares with nearly six in 10 people who supported Joe Biden in 2020.

Just over four in 10 young voters voted for Mr Trump, up from a third in 2020.

At the same time, black and Latino voters appeared slightly less likely to support Ms. Harris than they were to support Mr. Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.

About nine in 10 black voters who supported Mr. Biden supported Ms. Harris, while about eight in 10 black voters supported Ms. Harris.

More than half of Hispanic voters backed Ms. Harris, but that was slightly lower than the nearly six in 10 who backed Mr. Biden in 2020.

Mr. Trump’s support among these groups was up slightly from 2020. Collectively, these small gains resulted in a huge result.

– Trump’s focus on immigration, economy and culture has paid off

For all the grandiosity, swearing and name-calling, Mr. Trump ultimately won voters’ support with his siren call to improve the economy, stem the flow of immigrants at the southern border and “make America great again.”

He also appealed to religious voters in both parties, capitalizing on Democrats’ support for the transgender community.

Overall, about half of Trump voters said inflation was the biggest issue influencing their election decision. Many people said the same thing about the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to AP VoteCast.

He cited the fact that by most conventional measures the economy is solid (inflation is largely under control and wages are rising) while border crossings are down dramatically. He convinced voters by going over the facts and incessant repetition.

He also promised them the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history, although he did not explain how such an operation would work.

And it is threatening to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other American rivals; Economists warn this could significantly raise prices for average Americans.

After all, Mr. Trump’s victory may also have something to do with the underlying challenges Ms. Harris has faced from the beginning.

With Joe Biden’s low approval rating and facing deep voter disappointment with the direction of the country, he has never distanced himself from his party’s incumbent president.

Although Mr. Trump has been the central figure of American politics for nine years, he has convinced voters that he represents change.

– Donald Trump will take responsibility for a country with deep fissures

Mr. Trump is poised to take over a country with deepening political and cultural rifts and anxious voters.

EDonald Trump, former First Lady Melania Trump and their son Barron Trump
Donald Trump, former First Lady Melania Trump and their son Barron Trump (Evan Vucci/AP)

When asked what influenced their vote most, nearly half of voters mentioned the future of democracy.

This rate was higher than the rate of respondents who responded similarly on inflation, immigration or abortion policy. And it crosses over two major parties:

Nearly two-thirds of Harris voters and nearly one-third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their vote.

This is no surprise given the realities of the Trump era and the rhetoric of the campaign.

Mr. Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat in 2020 and watched his supporters ransack the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as Congress met to certify Democrat Joe Biden’s victory.

Mr. Trump even mused that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House two days before Election Day, after repeatedly vowing revenge on his political enemies.

By the end of the campaign, Ms. Harris joined other critics, including some of Mr. Trump’s former White House staff, who called the former president a “fascist.” Mr Trump, meanwhile, described Ms Harris as a “fascist” and a “communist”.

– Donald Trump’s criminal burden is no problem for many voters

The missing returns suggest that Mr. Trump’s criminal convictions, additional pending indictments and concerns about his most incendiary rhetoric are not enough of a concern to prevent tens of millions of Americans from voting for him.

Just over half of voters say Ms. Harris has the moral character to be president, while four in 10 people who say the same about Mr. Trump share that view, according to AP VoteCast. As Mr. Trump has said many times on the campaign trail, it’s quite possible that legal jeopardy will actually help him.

As it stands, Mr. Trump may never face sentencing in the business fraud case in New York, where he was convicted of 34 felonies. For now, his sentencing is scheduled for later this month.

He already had a federal indictment dismissed in Florida, sparing him a hearing on whether he violated the law on protecting U.S. national security secrets.

And he has made clear that he will use his authority as president to pursue federal charges against him for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

That will leave a racketeering case pending in Georgia against Mr. Trump and others accused of trying to overturn the 2020 election results.

– ‘Brother’ politics defeated abortion concerns

This was the first presidential election after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, ending a woman’s national right to terminate a pregnancy.

This was also the first time a Republican presidential candidate had over-wooed men with a hyper-masculine approach.

But the resulting “gender gap” was not enough to sink Mr. Trump.

About half of women support Ms. Harris, while about half of men support Trump, according to AP VoteCast. That seems broadly consistent with Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump’s holdings in 2020.

– Democrats face a leadership crisis and urgently need to regroup

Just a few months ago, Ms. Harris caused an incredible stir at the party. He apparently raised over a billion dollars overnight. He dominated the debate with Mr. Trump. It filled the arenas. And just a few days ago, huge crowds came to the Ellipse and the National Mall.

But in the end this was not enough.

Republicans, meanwhile, took control of the Senate, unseating senior senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and pushing many other Democratic incumbents to the brink of defeat.

The results will give Mr. Trump a significant advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress.

Their only hope is to win a House majority drawn mostly from key suburban districts in California and New York, but that was far from certain early Wednesday.

Either way, the results narrow the Democrats’ geographic footprint and, with Mr. Brown’s loss, also diminish the working-class voice that might oppose Mr. Trump’s call.

Mr. Trump has already succeeded in portraying Democrats as culturally disconnected from Middle America.

Now Democrats are wondering how they can reconnect with parts of the country and segments of voters who rejected them.