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Who wins the election? Legendary forecaster Allan Lichtman has ‘crows’ in his stomach

Harry November 6, 2024

Historian Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidencies electionsHe said he was still thinking Kamala Harris will eat Donald Trump But he said he felt especially nervous this year.

“I’ve been doing this for 42 years, and every four years I get butterflies in my stomach,” he said. “I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach this year.”

Lichtman, candidates head-to-head voting Being in key swing situations doesn’t make him nervous. He relies on the “13 Keys to the White House” system and still believes Harris will be the country’s next president. But somehow live video interview The presidential forecaster took to his YouTube channel with his son Sam to explain that he is concerned about the fragility of democracy, noting that the political system hasn’t actually been around that long.

“For a large part of human history, there was virtually no democracy. People were governed by the divine right of kings, by birthright, or by sword and blood,” he said. “Democracy is a very recent development.”

Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman answers questions in an interview with AFP on September 7, 2024 in Bethesda, Maryland. Lichtman created a model using 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the incumbent party's presidential candidate would win the election. next election. According to the model, democratic candidate Kamala Harris will win the US elections in 2024. Lichtman has correctly called every election except one since 1984. (Photo: Pedro Ugarte / AFP) (Photo: PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images) — Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman answers questions in an interview with AFP on September 7, 2024 in Bethesda, Maryland. Lichtman created a model using 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the incumbent party’s presidential candidate would win the election. next election. According to the model, democratic candidate Kamala Harris will win the US elections in 2024. Lichtman has correctly called every election except one since 1984. (Photo: Pedro Ugarte / AFP) (Photo: PEDRO UGARTE/AFP via Getty Images)

Both presidential campaigns portrayed their opponents as “threats to democracy” in the 2024 cycle. Trump called Harris a “communist” and Harris called Trump a “fascist”. A. Washington Post poll released in June It showed that more than 70% of Democratic and Republican voters view threats to democracy in the United States as “extremely important.”

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Lichtman, 77, earned his doctorate before becoming a “Distinguished Professor” from American University in Washington, DC. At Harvard, he specialized in modern American history and quantitative methods.

He is best known for helping to establish the presidential prediction system, which used thirteen true or false statements. If five or fewer are incorrect, the incumbent party candidate is expected to win. When six or more are incorrect, the challenging side is expected to win.

Lichtman said this year: at least eight of the keys Go for Harris.

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This article first appeared on USA TODAY: Why is election forecaster Allan Lichtman nervous about the 2024 election?