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Tropical Storm Rafael is forming in the Caribbean and is expected to enter the Gulf as a hurricane

Harry November 5, 2024

SOUTH MISSISSIPPI – The WLOX First Alert Weather Team is tracking Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea. It is expected to become a hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico this week.

Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable enough for Rafael to strengthen in the Caribbean. The forecast indicates it could reach Category 2 strength within a few days as it passes western Cuba and heads toward the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday PM or Thursday. If it tries to move into the northern Gulf, it will likely strengthen back into a tropical storm.

National Hurricane Center 9:00 PM Tropical Storm Rafael's forecast track and intensity — National Hurricane Center 9:00 PM Tropical Storm Rafael’s forecast track and intensity(wlox)

WHAT WILL BE THE STEERING ORDER?

Rafael’s path will ultimately depend on the strength of the high pressure system over the southeastern United States and the western Atlantic. A stronger high pressure area will keep Rafael further west. A weaker high pressure area will help guide Rafael into the northern or northeastern Gulf.

WHAT FACTORS CAN WEAKEN OR STRENGTHEN RAFAEL?

What’s in Rafael’s favor? Sea surface temperatures and low wind shear in the Southern Gulf. What works against Rafael? Land interaction with Cuba this week, lack of deep warm Gulf water, stronger wind shear near the northern Gulf.

Sea surface temperatures Monday afternoon.(WLOX)

Dry weather could cause Rafael to weaken in the Gulf(WLOX)

Loss of strong winds across the northern Gulf could weaken Rafael by the end of the week.(WLOX)

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI?

Because Rafael was recently installed, it may take some time for the models to become more accurate with specific details such as tracking and density of this system.

For now, our local forecast calls for a slightly higher chance of rain around Friday and Saturday, which could be associated with tropical weather. And depending on how close Rafael gets to us, it might be windy on those days.