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    • Will there be violence after the election? Experts weigh in.
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    Will there be violence after the election? Experts weigh in.

    Harry Posted on

    Experts tell USA TODAY their best guesses for election-related extremist activity

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    Threats of political violence, intimidation and insurrection have increased in recent weeks across an ecosystem of online extremism driven by a network of conspiracy theorists, disinformation purveyors and propagandists.

    As tensions and rhetoric run high, experts tracking domestic extremists say many people are likely watching and expecting an inevitable violent post-election showdown similar to the Jan. 6 insurrection. However, they said it remains unclear how, where or when such an event will take place and much depends on the election results.

    More than a dozen experts on violent domestic extremism consulted by USA TODAY said they closely monitor extremists’ online conversations and organizing, watching narratives form and keeping an eye out for anything that looks like a potential flashpoint. But they also noted that 2024 will be different from 2020; In some ways, this may help eliminate the possibility of political violence.

    The groups and communities that helped organize the January 6 uprising have been largely fragmented, if not completely abandoned, and have not been seen in public for years. Former President Donald Trump does not have a track record of organizing mass protests post-2020, though they still draw crowds. Perhaps most importantly, disgruntled members of the far right have so far not gathered in the streets as they did ahead of the 2020 election, said Megan Squire, Southern Poverty’s deputy director of data analytics. Law Center.

    “I don’t see a lot of right-wing groups on the ground going to anti-mask, anti-vaccine, and neo-Confederate rallies; I don’t see them putting each other’s numbers in their phones; they don’t participate in activities, they don’t learn to trust each other; “I don’t see organized groups hosting nightly fundraisers to buy body armor and transportation,” Squire said. “It’s a very different landscape.”

    Could there be another January 6?

    The possibility of political violence after the election could be a repeat of the violent uprising on January 6. But experts said it was unlikely to see a repeat of the Capitol riot in Washington, D.C., where one protester was killed by police and led to more than 1,400 arrests.

    Colin P. Clarke, director of research at global intelligence consultancy Soufan Group, said police and security agencies in the nation’s capital will be on full alert against any plans of action on January 6.

    “The deterrence display will be so overwhelming that only a fool could go there,” said Clarke. “We have a lot of idiots in this country, but it won’t be something organized and able to beat defenses like we’ve seen in 2021.”

    A more likely scenario that worries extremists would be facing a tight election in the days after Nov. 5, with votes still being counted.

    Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, said conspiracy theorists and their extremist allies could identify one or more local vote-counting centers in swing states and direct angry Trump supporters to target them through civil disobedience or violence.

    “If anything is going to get hot and heavy, it will be because the election is getting longer,” Beirich said. “Where angry MAGA people and maybe some bad actors, like white supremacists, go to the election counting center and start claiming fraud.”

    Clarke agreed.

    He said such a scenario could happen in several different states rather than the nation’s capital.

    “I worry that instead of a big event like on Jan. 6, we may see smaller events at local polling places, where it becomes a cascading effect where people say, ‘You gotta get out there, you gotta get out there.’ Prevent people from stealing this election,” said Clarke. “That way, It turns into death by thousands of paper cuts rather than one big incident.”

    Threats of political violence from lone attackers

    Regardless of organized acts of political violence, some experts on extremism remain highly concerned about individual acts of post-election violence by members of the far left or far right.

    Jared Holt, a senior research analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, said recent history shows far-right extremists are more likely to become disgruntled and resort to political violence following Trump’s loss.

    Holt said violent Trump fans are lulled into a sense of calm and an expectation of vindication by Trump’s often angry and confrontational campaign. Just as supporters of the QAnon conspiracy theory spend their time waiting for a “storm” of crime and political revenge against their enemies if Trump comes to power, many election fraud conspiracy theorists believe Trump will soon take office and clean up decades of corruption, Holt said.

    If Trump were to lose, especially in a tight race, those same conspiratorial extremists might decide to take matters into their own hands, Holt said.

    “This is a movement that preaches to its followers that their political opponents are not only people who think differently than you, but that they represent some kind of existential — even evil and demonic — threat to your safety and security,” Holt said. “People motivated by these beliefs may feel compelled to act in accordance with them.

    The same could be true if Trump wins the presidency, Clarke warned, but for agitators on the far left.

    Anti-fascists and anarchists have expressed their desire to avenge Trump’s victory, Clarke said.

    “Violence from the left has historically been nearly non-lethal, but anarchists and Antifaers have said they view a Trump win as an existential threat and are willing to go further than they have in the past,” he said.

    Proud Boys, Oath Keepers unlikely to play a role

    What extremism experts consulted by USA TODAY agree is that the major groups that played a role in political violence up to and including Jan. 6 are shadows of their former selves today and are unlikely to be major players in any disruption this year.

    Members of the street gang Proud Boys, for example, have been rarely seen in public in the past two years, Holt said. People wearing Proud Boys colors have occasionally been seen at Trump rallies, but the group appears to have shrunk to a few disgruntled and anonymous Telegram channels with little of the clout it once had, he said.

    Leaders of the Oath Keepers, a self-styled “militia group” that once counted thousands of current and former police officers and military members on its membership rolls, were jailed on Jan. 6 for seditious conspiracy for their role. The group has fallen out since their death. Other than that, experts who track armed far-right movements told USA TODAY. The same was true of the self-styled militia, Squire said, none of whom lit fires the way the Forsworn Ones once did.

    Simply put, the extremism landscape in 2024 is very different from the one in 2020, Squire said. This means experts monitoring this environment need to evolve their thinking and methods and keep an open mind about what potential threats will look like in the coming days and weeks.

    “That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it won’t look the same,” Squire said. “That’s why we shouldn’t use the playbook from last time.”

    Harry
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