When political outsider Donald Trump defied polls and expectations to defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election, he described the victory as “beautiful”.

Not everyone saw it that way, given that Democrat Clinton received nearly three million more votes nationwide than her Republican opponent. Non-Americans were particularly stunned that the person with the second most votes would be crowned president.

But Trump had done what the US system requires: winning enough individual states, sometimes by very narrow margins, to exceed the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.

Now, on the eve of the 2024 election showdown between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, the rules of this mysterious and, some say, outdated system are coming under renewed scrutiny.

Why Electoral College?

The 538 members of the U.S. Electoral College meet in their state capitals to determine the winner after the presidential election held every four years.

In order to win, a presidential candidate must obtain an absolute majority of the “voters” (or 270 out of 538 members).

The system grew out of the 1787 U.S. Constitution, which established the rules for indirect, single-round presidential elections.

The nation’s Founding Fathers viewed the system as a compromise between direct presidential elections with universal suffrage and elections by members of Congress; This approach was rejected as insufficiently democratic.

Since many states predictably lean Republican or Democratic, presidential candidates are focusing heavily on a handful of “swing” states that will be driven by elections; They almost ignore some large states like left-leaning California and right-leaning Texas.

Over the years, hundreds of amendments have been proposed to Congress to replace or eliminate the Electoral College. None of them were successful.

Trump’s victory in 2016 reignited the debate. And if the 2024 race is as exciting as most polls predict, the Electoral College will certainly be back in the spotlight.

Who are the 538 voters?

Most are local elected officials or party leaders, but their names are not on the ballots.

Each state has as many electors as there are members of the U.S. House of Representatives (a number based on the state’s population) and the Senate (two in each state, regardless of size).

For example, there are 54 electors in California; There are 40 in Texas; and sparsely populated Alaska, Delaware, Vermont and Wyoming have only three each.

Washington, the capital of the USA, also has three electors, although there are no voting members in Congress.

The Constitution leaves it up to the states to decide how their electors’ votes should be cast. In all but two states (Nebraska and Maine, which reward some electors based on congressional districts), the candidate who theoretically wins the most votes is allocated all of that state’s electors.

controversial institution

In November 2016, Trump received 306 delegate votes, far more than the 270 votes required.

The extraordinary situation of losing the popular vote and winning the White House was not unprecedented.

Five presidents came to office this way; the first was John Quincy Adams in 1824.

More recently, the 2000 election ended in an epic stalemate in Florida between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.

Gore received nearly 500,000 more votes nationwide, but when Florida was awarded to Bush—following intervention by the U.S. Supreme Court—the Electoral College total increased to 271, giving him a narrow victory.

Correct vote or simple formality?

Nothing in the Constitution compels voters to vote one way or another.

If some states demanded that they respect the popular vote and they did not, they were subject to a simple fine. But in July 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that states could impose penalties on such “disloyal electors.”

To date, disloyal voters have never determined the outcome of a US election.

Electoral College program

Electors will gather at state capitals on December 17 and vote for president and vice president. According to US law, they “shall meet and vote on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December.”

On Jan. 6, 2025, Congress will meet to certify the winner — an event watched with concern this cycle, four years after a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol trying to block certification.

But there is a difference. Last time, it was Republican vice president Mike Pence who, as president of the Senate, was responsible for overseeing the certification. He registered Biden’s victory by enduring the heavy pressure of Trump and the mafia.

This time, the Senate president who would normally oversee what would be pro forma certification will be none other than today’s vice president, Kamala Harris.

The new president will be sworn in on January 20.