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Recent rise in Harris betting odds fueled by outlier polls, Trump still favored
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Recent rise in Harris betting odds fueled by outlier polls, Trump still favored

Vice President Kamala Harris made a late move to bridge some of the gap between herself and him. former President Trump in election betting odds.

Trump holds a 13.1-point lead in the presidential odds as of Monday morning. leading Harris Real Clear Politics betting average 56% to 42.9%. But that figure represents a late shift in favor of Harris, who trailed Trump by 28.9 percentage points just six days ago.

“Some polls are getting a little bit closer, so I think the better ones are seeing a slight momentum toward Harris,” Maxim Lott, who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital on Monday.

WHAT ARE THE ELECTION BETTING ODDS? EXPERT EXPLAINS WHY TRUMP IS CURRENT FAVORITE

Kamala Harris smiles in Michigan

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the Michigan State University campus in East Lansing, Michigan, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Lott’s website shows a similar trend to the Real Clear Politics average; As of Monday morning, Trump has a 56.4% chance of winning the election and Harris has a 43.1% chance. But Trump’s lead fell 5.3 percent last week, as did the numbers from Real Clear Politics.

Lott, who previously served as a show producer at FOX Business Network, said a lot of input can lead to changing betting behavior, pointing to the surprising recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom case. poll in iowa That showed Harris with a one-point lead over Trump in a state where few are believed to be voting for Democrats.

While a poll could be dismissed as an outlier, Lott noted that Trump’s odds of winning the state had fallen to 82.1% as of Monday morning from 94% a week ago, and better-off voters were reacting to the news.

“I think there’s a narrative behind this poll that abortion is going to be a driving force in this election, just like it is in 2022, and women are going to show up in droves and elect Harris,” Lott said. “I think the punters are putting at least some value on the possibility that this is true.”

Trump in Pennsylvania with a red hat

Former President Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on Sunday (November 3). (AP/Matt Rourke)

MAJOR POLLLER DROPS LATEST BATTLEGROUND POLL NUMBERS

Lott does not believe the surge in Harris is driven by small amounts of very large bets, pointing to betting platforms such as PredictIt that similarly limit the number of bettors followed and bet sizes on specific outcomes. direction like all other platforms followed on the website.

Still, Lott cautioned against placing too much stock on late momentum when it comes to evaluating odds.

“Momentum doesn’t matter for these things,” Lott said. “The current price in a market is the best predictor of the future price… If Harris is supposed to be the leader, you can make a lot of money putting your money in the lead now by putting your money on him.”

Vice President Kamala Harris laughs

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the Michigan State University campus in East Lansing, Michigan, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

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All told, Lott predicts a close election coming soon up to participation.

“I would expect Trump to still be slightly favored on Election Day,” Lott said.

Get the latest updates on 2024 campaign history, exclusive interviews and more from our Fox News Digital election hub.