On the eve of Election Day, polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a near deadlock.

This is especially the case nationally with the New York Times poll. aggregate It shows Harris with a 1-point lead (49 percent to 48 percent); an effective draw.

The situation is almost the same in cases of oscillation.

The Times’ swing state totals show Trump leading in five states (Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia) to Harris’ two (Wisconsin and Michigan); but leaders in all states are within the margin of error.

However, while it appeared last week that Trump was gaining momentum, individual polls in the closing days of the election at least offer countervailing evidence.

Last Marist polls It gives Harris a slim lead in the “Blue Wall” states: Michigan (+3 points), Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (+2 points each).

In the same vein, CNN’s “Survey Survey” in those states, showing Harris with a 3-point lead in both Michigan and Wisconsin (49 percent to 46 percent) and a tie in Pennsylvania (48 percent to 48 percent).

Although polls show the race to be extremely close, there is reason to believe Harris may have regained some of the momentum she gained late this summer.

there is fall out Anti-Puerto Rican comments from a speaker at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally a push by the Harris campaign to appeal to male voters and close the gender gap, and Trump’s failure Using Nikki Haley as a surrogate with both female voters and moderate Republicans.

While the presidential betting odds are still in Trump’s favor, they confirm a slight shift in momentum. After peaking at 64 percent to 35 percent in favor of Trump, they now hover between 60 percent and 38 percent. RealClearPolitics scout.

like we did before written hereLooking beneath the latest numbers and looking at voters’ perceptions of candidates and demographic shifts becomes increasingly valuable in a close election.

Trump still leads on key issues like confidence in his handling of the economy, although his 7-point advantage (from 52 percent to 45 percent) has nearly halved from last month, according to the New York Times voting.

Conversely, Harris underperforms among key demographic groups such as: voters of colorand especially hispanic men And black menalthough he still has a hint of comfort with everyone. Time will also tell how anti-Puerto Rican comments hurt Trump and the impact of Harris’ effort to target Black men.

Also Harris 6 point advantage With suburban voters (47 percent to 41 percent), it could make up for its poor performance among men generally, and more specifically Hispanic and Black men.

Early voting data also provides some insight. Republicans are voting early at much higher rates than in 2020 — Democrats have just a 3 percentage point advantage. University of Florida Election LabThat compares with a 14 percent difference four years ago.

But in battleground states, women wear make-up 55 percent of early voters. Given Harris’ advantage with women, this could be crucial.

And as Early voting data from Pennsylvania It shows that among older voters, a critical bloc for Trump, Democrats make up 58 percent of early voters, while Republicans make up just 35 percent.

It’s important to add that, like every presidential election, this race is more important than who will win the White House. Control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives will be seized.

For Trump or Harris, these congressional races will significantly impact their ability to advance their respective agendas.

Republicans look increasingly likely to flip the Senate and win 51 or 52 seats. The GOP is almost certain to flip Montana and West Virginia, where Republican candidates are running well ahead of their Democratic rivals. Moreover, there is a possibility that Republicans could pull off wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio, where Senate races are extremely close.

The House of Representatives is more likely to focus on what’s happening in the presidential race. Trump’s victory will increase Republicans’ chances of staying in this chamber, while Harris’ victory will likely result in Democrats flipping the House.

Of course, one of the biggest advantages for Democrats in terms of the House of Representatives is the multitude of “heads” races in deep blue states like California and New York.

As a matter of fact, out of 25 seats in the Parliament taken into account Seven of the New York Times’ “jumps” are in those two states where Republicans surged in 2022 and helped shake up the House of Representatives in that year’s midterm elections.

Democrats are losing some of those, particularly California’s 22nd, 27th, 41st and 45th districts, and New York’s 17th and 19th, to GOP-held seats that could give them a narrow majority in the House. sees them as defenseless chairs.

Ultimately, an unprecedented election cycle will come to a head tomorrow. While both Harris and Trump have paths to victory, it remains to be seen whether Harris can turn an underwhelming final week for Trump into a victory, or whether Trump has done enough to return to the White House.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners at the New York-based polling firm Schoen Cooperman Research. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”

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