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Florida GOP’s dominance tested with marijuana and abortion ballot questions
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Florida GOP’s dominance tested with marijuana and abortion ballot questions

Florida’s elections will test whether the state maintains its new reputation as a Republican stronghold or whether Democrats capitalize on the support and make some gains. abortion And marijuana voting questions and the new energy that Vice President Kamala Harris is bringing to the race.

Gone are the days when Florida was considered the top prize among swing states. After former President Barack Obama won Florida twice, former President Donald Trump narrowly carried the state in 2016 and then by a much larger margin in 2020. In 2022, Republicans took all five seats in the statewide vote by a wide margin.

Still, there are many rumors about constitutional changes that could provide protection. abortion rights And legalization of recreational marijuanaBoth sides of each issue pour millions of dollars into advertising. Democrats support the ballot measures and hope that by increasing turnout they will give them at least a chance of stopping Trump’s third consecutive Florida victory and preventing U.S. Sen. Rick Scott from winning a second term.

The only statewide office on the ballot is Scott’s Senate seat. Scott is being challenged by former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Murcarsel-Powell in a race overshadowed by voting questions about the presidential election, abortion and marijuana.

Even if Trump and Scott triumph in Florida, Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said the election would be a resounding success if the amendments pass and the party flips enough legislative seats to eliminate the Republican majority.

“Look where we are in November 2022. We suffered the biggest loss Florida Democrats have ever experienced,” Fried said. “Nobody expected us to have this conversation today, that the polls showed we were tight, that there was even a chance Florida would be in the game. Everyone counted us out.”

It’s an uphill climb though. Florida-based Republican political strategist Jamie Miller said the amendments need the support of at least 60 percent of voters, with enough money spent against them to create doubt among voters who normally support the issues.

“As a general rule, changes are accepted unless a real effort is made against them, and if a real effort is made against them they fail,” Miller said. he said.

Miller also believes Democrats are motivated to vote against Republicans they dislike rather than being inspired by their own candidates.

“I see enthusiasm for Donald Trump and Rick Scott, but as a general rule in the state, Florida is not big enough to get you over the line,” he said.

Scott served two terms as governor, winning each with less than 50% of the vote. In 2018, he defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in a race decided by 0.2 percentage points. But Florida politics has changed. The last time Scott was on the ballot, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the state. Republicans now have a million-voter advantage.

Scott, one of the richest members of Congress, has poured millions of dollars of his own money into the race, as he has in his previous three elections. With so little money coming in and so much spending from national Democrats until the final few weeks of the race, Murcarsel-Powell struggled to gain attention.

Although Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis was not on the ballot, he spent time campaigning against abortion rights and marijuana amendments. DeSantis even used government agencies to fight the change; The Agency for Health Care Administration set up a website and ran TV ads providing abortion information, and the Department of Health tried to block television stations from airing a pro-change ad.

The abortion amendment would protect women’s rights to have abortions up to the point where the fetus can survive outside the womb. Florida now bans abortions six weeks after conception because many women do not realize they are pregnant.

Voters overwhelmingly approved medical marijuana in 2016. This year they are being asked to legalize recreational marijuana. While the marijuana industry has spent tens of millions of dollars on the campaign, DeSantis has raised money against it and frequently criticized it at official events.

Few of Florida’s 28 congressional seats are competitive, but the state will elect at least one new member of Congress. Former Senate President Mike Haridopolos was elected to replace retiring Republican Representative Bill Posey. He is being challenged by Democrat Sandy Kennedy in a strongly Republican district.

Republicans will maintain firm control of the legislature. Democrats will consider it a major victory if they flip enough seats in the House and Senate to eliminate the GOP supermajority.

One of the heavily targeted legislative seats is held by Republican Sen. Corey Simon, a former Florida State and NFL football star, who is being challenged by nationally renowned civil rights attorney Daryl Parks, a former partner of civil rights attorney Ben Crump. is facing.