ROCKFORD, Illinois (WIFR) – We have received approximately 0.2 inches of precipitation at the time of this forecast. This is just the beginning of a very rainy Monday. Starting from tonight, heavy rains will enter the region again. These could drop heavy rain of around a quarter to half an inch. We will stay on the warm side with the warm front keeping our lows in the mid 50s for rain.

We will take a break from the rain on Monday, but the clouds will remain overhead. I can’t rule out a shower or two in the early afternoon, but most of us should be dry throughout the day. This makes our winds of primary concern during the day, as some winds from the southwest can reach speeds of 30 mph. These winds will carry warm moist air across the state line, allowing highs to reach the upper 60s even with cloud cover overhead.

The main ticket item when it comes to these three days of precipitation will occur on Monday evening/night. In addition to heavy rains, thunderstorms are also expected. I’ve been talking about the possibility of strong to severe storms for the last few days, but as the models progress I’m less enthusiastic about our severe chances. Instead, I think we will focus only on the heavy rains that are likely to occur across the region. We could see near-record rainfall rates for this time of year, with 2 to 3 inches of rain possible. There is a possibility of localized flooding, especially in areas where heavy rainfall occurs, but there are a number of factors that will help limit our risks of flooding. Drought will actually be in our favor because the ground is very open to precipitation and will absorb a lot of moisture. River levels are lower so there won’t be as much concern. The only factor helping with local flooding is the amount of leaves that have fallen over the past few weeks. Storm drains may be blocked by fallen leaves, so I recommend clearing them to reduce flooding on our roads. Lows will be in the lower 60s.

Starting from Tuesday, there will be light showers in the morning, and it will rain again after noon. This rain will not be very heavy and I do not predict it will be heavy. In the afternoon, showers will arrive with a cold front that will shift our winds towards the northwest. However, highs will still reach the mid-60s.

We will feel the effects of the front Tuesday night as lows drop into the lower 40s with clear skies.

We see very pleasant and seasonal weather from Wednesday to Friday. Highs are in the mid to upper 50s with plenty of sunshine.

We have another chance of rain this weekend but models are moving back and forth in timing. For now, just be prepared to pack your umbrella this weekend.

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