Just a few days before the election, the Democratic presidential candidate has emerged in a new poll conducted by one of America’s most reliable pollsters. Kamala Harris to lead him Republican rival Donald Trump by three points in deep red Iowa.

Selzer & Co. New survey conducted by Des Moines Register and Mediacom’s release on Saturday spurred poll analysts into action Nate Silver Writing a quick analysis, calling the survey “shocking” and saying it “took courage” to publish it.

“(Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.) has a long track record of subverting conventional wisdom and being right,” Silver wrote on his blog. Silver Bulletin. “In a world where most pollsters have too much egg on their faces, he has almost prophetic status.”

This poll surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters from October 28-31 and had a margin of error of 3.4 points. 47 percent of those surveyed supported Vice President Harris, and 44 percent supported former president Trump.

news week He contacted Harris and Trump’s campaigns via email for comment.

The poll reflects strong momentum among women and older voters in Iowa, Harris said. Des-Moines Register It reported that Harris had a 20-point lead among women (56 percent to 36 percent) and a stunning 63 to 28 lead among women over 65.

Independent voters also appear to be moving Harris’ way; independent men lean toward Trump by a smaller margin, while independent women support Harris by 28 points.

Selzer’s poll shifted Silver’s poll aggregator model to Harris 45.4 and Trump 48.8 (giving Trump a 3.4-point winning margin). Before the poll, Silver’s model gave Harris a 9 percent chance of winning Iowa, but that rate later nearly doubled to 17 percent.

Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 93 percent chance of carrying Iowa, with Harris a 7 percent chance.

Silver cites Selzer & Co. as one of the top two pollsters in America. FiveThirtyEight ranked the company 12th^This It is on the list of 282 pollsters due to its track record and methodology.

Betting market website Polymarket changed its odds in favor of Harris after the poll was released, dropping from a 96 percent chance of a Trump victory on Friday to an 80 percent chance of a Trump victory on Sunday.

The findings mark a significant shift from previous Iowa polls, including Selzer’s June poll, which had Trump leading by 18 points over the President. Joe BidenHe was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.

By September, this difference narrowed to 4 points against Harris, and this month it turned in Harris’ favor.

Silver called Selzer a “maverick” for releasing the survey; in his view, many other pollsters are “clustering” together by publishing results with an almost certain correlation.

“If you had to play the odds, Selzer would probably be wrong this time,” Silver wrote, noting that other polls show Trump still ahead, including the Trump-leading Iowa poll conducted by Emerson College and also released Saturday. pulled. 9 points carries 54 percent of the vote to Harris’ 45.

The Trump campaign quickly rejected Selzer’s poll findings, calling them “outliers” in a memo distributed hours after the poll was released.

Campaign chief pollster Tony Fabrizio noted that the Emerson College poll suggests it reflects Iowa voters “much more closely,” especially given party registration trends in his favor Republicans Since 2020 and the consistency of Emerson’s results with previous surveys.

“Unlike Emerson, who transparently reported partisan stakes and 2020 vote recalls, Des Moines Register They do not disclose the distribution of this information, even though they asked about it in their survey,” Fabrizio said.

Former pollster Adam Carlson posted Fabrizo’s rating on Saturday

Trump carried Iowa by 9.5 points in 2016 and 8.2 points in 2020.