But several scenarios include impacts to Florida and even the Carolinas.

Could Florida, USA see Tropical Storm Patty or even a hurricane in November? Scenarios:

DaSilva said two different paths are possible for the system developing in the Caribbean. Based on very early forecasts, the timing for both scenarios will be from November 7 to November 10, but the locations and strength affected vary greatly and will be determined by several factors, including the location of the high pressure system and the interaction with the mountains.

West way:

• Timing: 7-10 November
• Where: The location of this high pressure system will determine where a potential tropical system could go. If the high pressure system over the United States becomes stronger, the developing tropical system could begin moving westward earlier, moving toward Mexico and dying out there. It may also move to the Yucatan Peninsula and die there.
  • But it also has the potential to head toward Florida, particularly South Florida. “The chance of reaching Florida’s Big Bend is low, but not zero. South Florida has a higher chance. We don’t think it will go that way in Alabama, Texas, Louisiana,” DaSilva said.
• How strong: But if this high pressure system moves off the east coast of the U.S., the tropical system could head toward the U.S. and that “could definitely become a hurricane.” Under this scenario, there would be more time on warm water in the Caribbean.
  • “If it turns toward Florida, this could lead to a stronger storm across the state. The chance of it becoming a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) is low, but with winds low and waters warm, we can’t rule it out. It’s hard to pinpoint it at this point.” it is difficult, but the potential is there,” DaSilva said.
• Effects: Possible impacts in South Florida include a lot of rain, coastal flooding, wind blowing towards very sensitive coasts.

Northern route:

• Timing: 7-10 November
• Where: Historically, systems have sailed past Cuba and Hispaniola. But DaSilva said the high-pressure system could move the tropical system westward, sending it into Florida or even the Carolinas.
• How strong is it? “We could very well see a hurricane. Conditions in the Caribbean are very favorable for strengthening. If all the pieces come together, it could become a hurricane in the Caribbean. It wouldn’t surprise me. Once it interacts with Cuba and Hispaniola, it could weaken but re-intensify once it enters the Bahamas.”
  • This path could bring a tropical storm or low-intensity hurricane to the southeastern United States
• Effects: Impacts will include strong winds and rain from Florida to the Carolinas.

November hurricanes? Florida has been hit by 3 attacks in the past

since 1851 Three hurricanes hit Florida in November. Hitting Florida were:

• Hurricane Nicole
  • Landing: November 10, 2022, near Vero Beach
  • Power: 75 mph
• Hurricane Kate:
  • Landing: 21 November 1985, Mexican Coast
  • Power: 100 mph
• 1935 “Yankee” hurricane
  • Landing: November 4, 1935, Miami
  • Power: 100 mph