BANGKOK – Three well-armed militia launched a surprise joint attack in the northeast Myanmar A year ago, he broke the strategic stalemate with the regime’s military by quickly seizing huge swathes of territory and encouraging others to attack across the country.

Before the attack, the army’s control appeared to be tightly tied to its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and was bolstered by material support from Russia and China. But today it is increasingly receding into the background, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and outposts. strategic cities Even its leaders admit it will be difficult to regain.

How did the attack develop?

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, leading to an intensification of clashes with established armed groups linked to Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups and sparking the formation of new pro-democracy militias.

However, until the launch of Operation 1027, named after its start on 27 October, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely managed to prevent major casualties across the country.

Operation 1027 carried out coordinated attacks from the three most powerful ethnic armed groups (Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, Arakan Army, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance), and they managed to quickly capture towns. and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.

two weeks later Arakan Army launched an attack in the western province of his hometown Rakhineand has since been joined by other militia groups and PDFs across the country.

A year after the attack, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe region stretching from Rakhine state in the west to the north and then south to Kayah and Kayin provinces along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw retreated to the center around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city Yangon.

What’s next?

Many expect the army to launch a counter-offensive when the rainy season ends soon; This is supported by the influx of approximately 30,000 new soldiers since then. activation of conscription and complete air superiority continued in February.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city in the center of the country.

Facing threats from across the country, “there appears to be no viable path back for the military to retake any of the territory it has lost,” said Connor Macdonald of Myanmar advocacy group Special Advisory Council.

“The military is on defense all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to rotate its units and then other parts are left defenseless,” he said.

What happened to Myanmar’s civilian population?

As the army faced adversity in ground combat, it began to turn increasingly to indiscriminate air and artillery attacks; This has resulted in a 95% increase in civilian deaths from air strikes and a 170% increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive. It started according to a report prepared by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights last month.

Tatmadaw is accused Intentionally targeting civilians He denies this, as revenge for perceived support for the resistance militia.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the conflict, and according to the UN, there are now a total of more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar and approximately 18.6 million people in need of assistance.

What happens if the military regime falls?

As the front expands, militias appear to be pushing beyond their own ethnic areas; Just as the Rakhine-based Arakan Army captured the Chin town of Paletwa in January, which led to some friction between the groups; This was a harbinger of possible problems the Tatmadaw might face in the future. eventually falls.

Currently, there is solidarity between different ethnic groups focused on a common enemy, but this has not translated into common goals, said Aung Thu Nyein, communications director at the Myanmar Strategy and Policy Institute.

If the Tatmadaw falls, it could lead to the disintegration of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and regional differences.

“It is unlikely that the resistance will overthrow the junta, but I cannot rule out this scenario. If we cannot build trust and common goals, this could lead to the Syria scenario.”

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 attack, which turned out to be a successful attempt to stop organized criminal activity flourishing along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood group to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan; This ceasefire lasted five months until the ethnic alliance launched the second phase of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the agreement. truce.

China was unhappy with this development, closing border crossings, cutting off electricity to Myanmar towns and taking other measures to end the war that have so far failed.