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    • Yahya Sinwar was killed, what will be the end of Israel and Hamas?
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    Yahya Sinwar was killed, what will be the end of Israel and Hamas?

    Harry Posted on

    two on October 21 Hamas sources revealed to the media that there was an idea to appoint a leader to succeed Yahya Sinvar, The possibility of his assassination on October 16 was ruled out, at least for now.

    The Hamas leadership, which operates in the Gulf country Qatar at a distance from Gaza, decided that the organization would be managed by the five-person committee established in August after the murder of political leader Ismail Haniye, at least until March 2025. .

    The committee, headquartered in Doha, the capital of Qatar, consists of Khalil al-Hayya, Khalid Meshaal, Zaher Jabareen, Mohammed Derviş and the political bureau secretary, whose identity is kept secret for security reasons.

    The internal dynamic of the Hamas organization was certainly seriously shaken, but an informed source with good knowledge of the inner workings of the organization noted an interesting note.

    Interviewed by the Associated Press, Sadeq Abu Amer, president of the Turkey-based think tank Palestine Dialogue Group, said that the dismissal of Sinwar, whom he called “one of the most prominent hawks in the movement,” probably reflects a “” dovish(-like) trend or direction.” progress”.

    Yahya Sinwar, former leader of the Palestinian Hamas Islamist movement, during a meeting with members of the Palestinian group at the Hamas Chairman’s office in Gaza City on April 13, 2022 (source: ATTIA MUHAMMED/FLASH90)

    He stated that with the disappearance of Sinwar, the hostage-prisoner exchange agreement became practical policy.

    Abu Amer was quick to dismiss any suggestion that Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, if still alive, could replace him as leader of Hamas. “Mohammad Sinwar is the head of the struggle on the ground,” he said, “but there will be no Sinwar heir as head of the political bureau.”

    Although somewhat mistaken, he believed, as it turned out, that Hamas’ Qatar-based political leaders might decide to choose one of their own to lead the organization. He identified the two leading names as al-Hayya and Meshaal.

    Al-Hayya, 63, was Sinwar’s deputy and headed the Hamas delegation in the ceasefire negotiations.

    In an April 2024 interview, al-Hayya said Hamas was willing to negotiate a ceasefire with Israel for at least five years and that if an independent Palestinian state was established along the 1967 borders, the group would dissolve its military wing and become a fully Palestinian state. political party

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    Meshaal, 68, served as the group’s political leader from 1996 to 2017.

    The 13-year-old, who was the subject of an assassination attempt in 1997, supports forces opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the ongoing Civil War in Syria.

    As a result, he is on good terms with neither Iran nor Hezbollah. It has good relations with Türkiye and Qatar.

    Jabareen, who was sentenced to 35 years in prison for the death of two Israeli police officers on the Temple Mount, was released in a prisoner exchange.

    He presided over the resumption of suicide attacks in Israel in 2023. Dervish, also known as Abu Omar Hasan, has been chairman of the Hamas Shura Council since October 2023.

    Initial reactions to the news of Sinwar’s death on October 16 reflected the hope of many that a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of the hostages was a short step away.

    Such immediate expectations appeared to be quickly quashed. The first public statement after Sinwar’s death, made by his Qatar-based deputy al-Hayya, was that the hostages could not be released “without the end of the offensive and the withdrawal from Gaza”.

    A subtle answer

    Israel’s stance in the immediate aftermath of Sinwar’s death was nuanced. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s first reaction was that the war is not over. “Evil has been dealt a heavy blow,” he said, “but the task before us is not yet completed.”

    However, in a message published through the media, Netanyahu offered Hamas terrorists a free exit from the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of the hostages. Netanyahu said that anyone who lays down their weapons and returns the hostages will be allowed to leave Gaza.

    Could this formula form the basis of an eventual hostage return agreement? Possibly on the condition that Hamas’s new leadership committee, based in Qatar, is somewhat more pragmatic (more “dove-like”, in Abu Amer’s words) than its former hawkish leader.

    A reassessment of Hamas’ situation and prospects could convince the leadership that relocating the organization outside the Gaza Strip may be the most effective way to recover and recover.

    Given the massive manpower losses Hamas is currently experiencing, it is clearly preferable to continue fighting to the last man in Gaza.

    This scenario, if realised, would hardly suit the wishes of US President Joe Biden, Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and many other Western leaders who are free to advise on how Israel should behave. to behave.

    The accepted international view is that Israel should de-escalate tensions on all fronts, negotiate a hostage-prisoner exchange in Gaza that includes an Israeli ceasefire, halt its attacks on Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut and the rest of Lebanon, and respond only to minimal Iran’s massive offensive. It was thought that the response should be at the highest level. Missile launch against Israel on 1 October.

    It appears that the Israeli response, although not minimal, was effectively targeted.

    Netanyahu’s policy of depleting their manpower and wearing them out, while slowly but surely eliminating the leadership of the Iran-backed terrorist armies in Gaza, Lebanon, and other axis of evil, is clearly working.

    There is no chance of success

    The West’s constant advocacy of unenforceable ceasefires, peace agreements, and de-escalation could never succeed.

    Such Israeli appeasement of jihadist enemies committed to its destruction would only serve to ensure the continuation of the multifaceted existential threat.

    However, in the very limited area of ​​the war in Gaza, Sinwar’s elimination may have opened a window of hope. Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar reportedly visited Cairo on October 20 to discuss the possible revival of hostage agreement negotiations.

    Two days later, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel, where he reiterated his view that Israel should seek to take advantage of Sinwar’s assassination and continue negotiations for a hostage agreement. It is stated that Netanyahu also has the same opinion.

    Blinken went to Egypt; Reports here suggest that the talks included the future governance and reconstruction of Gaza, including the establishment of an international force to oversee the process.

    According to The Wall Street Journal’s October 19 report, Sinwar told Hamas negotiators in Qatar that Israel would make concessions if he was killed.

    On this, if on nothing else, he was apparently wrong. On October 21, Israel’s 12th TV channel claimed that Israel had recently indicated that it was ready to make concessions to the United States that were not previously considered possible.

    It was not specified what such concessions might include, but it is conceivable that they were based on Netanyahu’s offer of free passage.

    If the report is correct, their success may depend on how flexible Hamas’s reconstituted leadership chooses to be in the post-Sinwar era.

    The author is Eurasia Review’s Middle East correspondent. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at: www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com.



    Harry
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