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Scientists warn glacier melting could trigger increased volcanic eruptions

Harry October 28, 2024

In recent months, scientists have observed significant activity at Iceland’s Askja volcano, raising concerns that melting glaciers could trigger increased volcanic eruptions. Since 2021, Askja has risen about 80 centimeters (32 inches) as a result of 44 million cubic meters (1.6 billion cubic feet) of magma flowing into the existing reservoir about three kilometers (two miles) below the surface. Volcanologist Michelle Parks of the Icelandic Meteorological Office is monitoring Askja closely, including sinking a temperature probe into Viti’s crater lake that measured 26.4 degrees Celsius (79.5 degrees Fahrenheit), consistent with recent readings.

“The time scale can be quite short. Hours perhaps… You want to have a plan if something happens that will allow the caldera to be evacuated quickly,” said Freysteinn Sigmundsson, a geophysicist at the University of Iceland and co-chairman of Michelle Parks. It is part of a government-funded project investigating this phenomenon.

The research project aims to determine whether the rapid retreat of glaciers due to human-induced climate change will trigger an increase in volcanic activity that could put many lives around the world at risk. Glaciers currently cover only 10% of Iceland, but that ice still supports the weight of more than half of the country’s 34 active volcanic systems and is melting rapidly as global temperatures rise. Scientists estimate that roughly half of the remaining glacier volume will disappear by the end of this century.

As glaciers retreat, downward pressure on the Earth’s thin outer crust eases, allowing the ground to recover and the Earth’s surface to rise. This can affect stress fields on the Earth, creating new cracks beneath a volcano, which can lead to eruptions when the pressure is high enough. The enormous weight of glaciers and ice sheets can suppress volcanoes, but as the ice melts magma can move more freely beneath the surface.

Historical evidence supports this theory. After the ice melted between 10,000 and 15,000 years ago, the frequency of volcanic eruptions on the island increased 30 to 50 times. Scientists found that eruption rates during and immediately after ice loss increased by an estimated 30 to 50 times compared to the previous Ice Age and recent times. Michelle Parks said this was likely a catastrophic scenario involving a “ridiculous amount of explosions” as rivers of lava reshaped the island and ash rained into the surrounding seas.

There are approximately 245 active or potentially active volcanoes worldwide under or within five kilometers (three miles) of ice. About 160 million people live within 100 kilometers (62 miles) of at least one of these volcanoes, and another 20,000 live in the immediate vicinity. Figures like these underscore the threat that could arise if melting glaciers leads to more volcanoes erupting, causing deadly floods and mudflows and spewing vast clouds of ash and deadly gases into the atmosphere.

Increased volcanic activity may also exacerbate global warming. Eruptions rich in carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, can contribute to climate change by lasting longer than sulfur aerosols, which can cause initial cooling periods. Volcanoes, now known to lie beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, may help raise sea levels by accelerating the melting of ice into the ocean.

Askja is of particular interest because although it has been ice-free for 10,000 years, it is recovering due to pressure changes resulting from the retreat of glaciers affecting large parts of the Earth’s crust and mantle. Michelle Parks said, “There’s more magma coming from under Iceland, and we don’t need it. There’s enough magma.” he said.

Another worrisome volcano is Katla, located under a small ice cap near the southern coast. Katla has experienced more than 20 eruptions since the Middle Ages, on average every 60 years. Katla last erupted in 1918, and another eruption is long overdue. During the 1918 eruption, heat radiating from Katla’s caldera rapidly melted the ice at the top of the volcano, releasing a flood of water greater than the discharges of the Amazon, the Mississippi, and the Yangtze combined. rivers are at their peak.

The Icelandic government has contingency plans for a Katla-style eruption and is working with local police districts to create short-term risk assessments for other volcanoes. The government has also used its volcanic base to its advantage, using geothermal energy to heat homes and businesses and draw tourists to invigorating geothermal baths.

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As glaciers continue to melt, the interaction between volcanoes and ice will remain a key concern among volcanologists. The potential for increased volcanic activity due to glacier retreat is a global concern; Scientists closely monitor volcanoes under ice in regions such as Antarctica and the Andes. In 2017, scientists reported the detection of another 91 possible volcanoes hidden beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

“At the end of the day, what we’re aiming for with this project is a much bigger picture. This is the future of volcanic eruptions. How big can they get? … And what does the future hold? Not just in Iceland, but in the rest of Europe and potentially further afield regions as well,” said Michelle Parks.

Scientists continue to collect data on ice retreat and magma formation to feed complex computer models. Their goal is to determine whether climate change is playing a role in increased volcanic activity; This could have profound impacts on populations living near volcanoes and the global climate.

Sources: Reuters, Tuoi Tre News, Izvestia.ru, Indian Express, Alghad

This article was written in collaboration with prolific artificial intelligence company Alchemiq.