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How India can still qualify for the WTC final despite a crushing home series loss to New Zealand: All scenarios explained
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How India can still qualify for the WTC final despite a crushing home series loss to New Zealand: All scenarios explained

India’s chances of qualifying for their third consecutive World Test Championship (WTC) final took a significant blow after this incident. Rohit Sharma And together they suffered a shocking series of losses New Zealand on Saturday. India They lost the second Test against the Kiwis at the Maharashtra Cricket Association (MCA) Stadium in Pune by 113 runs, taking a 0-2 lead in the ongoing three-match series. Chasing 359 to level the series, India’s innings collapsed like a pack of cards on the way to a turning point on Day 3. Yashasvi Jaiswal’s knock of 77 gave the home team a glimmer of hope, but as soon as they were dismissed by Mitchell Santner, they were hoping to chase down the total, crash and burn.

India's Virat Kohli talks to his captain Rohit Sharma (right) during the second Test against New Zealand. (Photo: Punit PARANJPE / AFP) / -- IMAGE IS LIMITED TO EDITORIAL USE - STRICTLY NO COMMERCIAL USE --(AFP)
India’s Virat Kohli talks to his captain Rohit Sharma (right) during the second Test against New Zealand. (Photo: Punit PARANJPE / AFP) / — IMAGE IS LIMITED TO EDITORIAL USE – STRICTLY NO COMMERCIAL USE –(AFP)

Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja tried to fight back in the third and final session of Day 3, but all hopes of a spectacular comeback victory were dashed as soon as Ashwin (18) was sent back to the pavilion by Santner. As a result of this victory, New Zealand took an undisputed 2-0 lead in the three-match series. This is also New Zealand’s first Test series win in India and also their first overseas series win since the inception of the World Test Championship.

India lose first Test series at home in 12 years
India lose first Test series at home in 12 years

New Zealand’s win in the second Test means India’s WTC points percentage has dropped from 74 per cent to 62.82 per cent in eight days. India currently has 98 points from 13 matches.

However, Rohit and his team are still at the top of the WTC rankings and India still has a narrow lead over second-placed Australia with 62.50 points.

How can India qualify for the WTC final set to be played at Lords in 2025?

Despite suffering defeat in the Test series on home soil for the first time since 2012, India still have a chance of reaching the WTC final at Lord’s Cricket Ground. However, if some results go India’s way and Rohit Sharma and co suffer from more mistakes, it could also help the team’s bid to reach the final.

India will next face New Zealand in the third Test at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai. This will be India’s last home test in the ongoing WTC cycle and after this match, Rohit Sharma and co will head to Australia for the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

It is worth noting that India, New Zealand and Australia, as well as South Africa and Sri Lanka, are also competing for the WTC final qualifiers.

If India wants to reach the final without being dependent on others, they cannot afford another defeat in the remaining six matches. After losing the second Test against the Kiwis, India can now finish with a PCT of 71.05 with a maximum of one draw and five wins.

If the side manages to win all the remaining six Tests, India will bag 170 points with a stunning PCT of 74.56. But to reach this points percentage, India need to win the final Test against New Zealand and beat Australia 5-0 Down Under.

At least two wins will keep India in contention, but then some other results need to go their way. If Rohit Sharma and co want to keep their PCT above 60, the side needs to win at least two Tests and draw four matches.

Who can challenge India in the WTC final race?

Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and South Africa have a chance to reach the final. Sri Lanka has an outside chance if they win all their remaining matches and India lose some crucial points along the way. Sri Lanka have four Tests remaining; two away against South Africa and two at home against Australia in 2025.

South Africa is in the strongest position to reach the final. Recently, the Proteas defeated Bangladesh in the first Test and they have one more Test in Bangladesh. South Africa will also play Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home and if the Proteas win all their matches their PCT will remain at 69.44 and India will face the task of not conceding another defeat and only drawing one match.

Australia can reach the WTC final with four wins from the remaining seven Tests, five at home against India and two against Australia. India and Australia are unlikely to qualify for the WTC final despite being in the top two spots.

New Zealand have a very good chance of reaching the final despite picking up their first Test series win in India. New Zealand can only finish with a PCT best of 64.28 if they win the remaining four Tests, including one against India and three against England.

India had reached the WTC final in 2021 and 2023. Can the side make it to their third consecutive final? Only time will tell.