Each week throughout the 2023-24 NBA season, we’ll take a deeper look at some of the league’s biggest stories to determine whether trends are based on fact or fiction.

Fact or Fiction: Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers have a long season ahead

The NBA this week launched an investigation into one-time MVP Joel Embiid’s absence from the Philadelphia 76ers at the start of the season. According to ESPN’s Shams Charania. It seems the league has as many questions as the rest of us about the ongoing lack of 7-footers, and for good reason.

Embiid missed each of Philadelphia’s six preseason games due to what the team called “rehabbing a left knee injury.” He tore the meniscus in his left knee for a second time in January and required another surgery, which sidelined him until April, when Philadelphia returned to the playoff race at less than 100%.

He played for Team USA in the Olympics and showed up to training camp on time. touts weight loss. Maybe we should have been more careful when Embiid informed us at media day: “Physically, I’m fine. I’m not where I want to be. … I’m here until I feel like I’m ready to go.” I’m sure they will block me.”

Hold him back, they did. The Sixers released a statement before the regular-season opener touting that Embiid “has responded well to his personalized plan and is expected to ramp up return-to-play activities, including scrimmage, this week.” He is expected to miss at least two more games to start the season.

In other words, nine months after his second surgery on his left knee, six months after returning to the court, three months after playing in Paris and a month into the 2024-25 season, Embiid is starting to get into shape. This shouldn’t just ring alarm bells; This is a five alarm fire.

Embiid’s height is stated as 1.80 and 280 kilos. Believe it or not, according to Basketball Reference, Only four other players in history There has only been one All-Star team of this size: Shaquille O’Neal, Yao Ming, Andrew Bynum and Brook Lopez.

Bynum, whose career required multiple surgeries on both knees, retired at age 26. Yao retired five games into his age-30 season and required a fifth surgery on his left foot. Although Lopez has managed to have a long career despite three surgeries on his right foot from 2011 to 2014, he moved to a lesser-used role at the age of 30 to protect himself and made the bi-annual exception in 2018.

Only O’Neal carried his dominance into his 30s. He didn’t have a single major surgery in his 20s. At age 30, he had three consecutive championships (and the Finals MVP) and led the NBA in Player Efficiency Ratings each season. He would win his fourth championship with the Miami Heat at the age of 33 as injuries began to take their toll, and he was never the same again, playing for four different teams in his final four seasons.

A reminder: The Sixers gave Embiid a three-year, $192 million contract extension that will pay him almost $70 million (one-third of the projected salary cap) through the 2028-29 season when he is 34 years old.

Philadelphia is counting on Embiid, who turns 30 in March and will be The Next Shaq. There were also questions about O’Neal’s conditioning at age 30, but at least we had proof of what might be possible with him at the helm: a dynasty. He didn’t miss a single playoff game in his 20s. Embiid has never finished a season healthy.

We also have ample evidence that Embiid is closer to the end of his career, or at least moving on to a different phase, than building a championship team. Look at that chart again. Outside of Bynum, again. four years retired At this point in his career, Embiid has recorded the highest usage and lowest availability of anyone his size in their 20s.

Do we expect him to get better when he’s already been sidelined this season? In addition to resting him through the first week of the 2024-25 season, the plan to prepare Embiid for a healthy playoff run is to prevent him from playing another 15 straight games. The program will also include “periodic leaves of absence throughout the regular season and routine evaluations by doctors and the 76ers’ medical staff,” Charania reported.

Here’s the one thing we learned from Philadelphia’s opening night loss to the Milwaukee Bucks: The Sixers are far from a contender without Embiid. They looked like a team still trying to figure out who they were without their own team’s face in sight, as if they hadn’t had enough opportunity to prepare. In the end it doesn’t matter, because without Embiid it doesn’t matter who they are. championship race.

So the Sixers will spend the season vacillating between a team running with the oft-injured 6-foot-1, 280-pound behemoth and a team led instead by 24-year-old Tyrese Maxey. The Embiid-less version of the 76ers finished 16-27 last season and was outscored by 12.6 points per 100 possessions.

In what world is this a good plan? Not; It’s the only plan they have. And that also depends on the health of 34-year-old Paul George, who joined Embiid on the injured list to begin the season.

George’s 74 games last season were an anomaly. He missed 40 percent of the games in the previous four seasons due to right shoulder, left hamstring, right foot, right elbow, right hamstring, right knee, left groin and left knee ailments. George, who signed a four-year maximum contract with the Sixers in the offseason, suffered a bone bruise after hyperextending his left knee during the preseason.

Again: Will this be better for the 34-year-old as he opened the season with an injury? It looks like he will also miss back-to-back games in addition to his absence at the beginning of this season. at best The Sixers will have a full roster of stars for three-quarters of the season, preparing one team to compete for a championship and the other to prevent them from falling out of the standings like they did last season, all with the hope of achieving this. every other night for the entirety of the playoffs. No team wants this.

Except for the Sixers, who signed him for four more years.

Stability: Truth. Joel Embiid and the 76ers have a long season ahead.