About our survey averages

Our averages include surveys collected by The New York Times and. five thirty eight. Estimates are adjusted for a variety of factors, including a poll’s timeliness and sample size, whether a poll is representative of likely voters, and whether other polls have changed since the poll was conducted.

Additionally, each pollster: Has a history of accuracy in recent electionsMember of a professional voting organizationPerforms probability-based sampling

These factors affect how much weight each survey receives on average. We consider pollsters who meet at least two of the three criteria to be “selected pollsters” as long as they conduct surveys for neutral sponsors. Read more about our methodology.

The Times conducts its own national and state surveys in partnership with Siena College. These surveys are included in the averages. Follow the Times/Siena poll here.

Maine and Nebraska give two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historical election results for these districts are calculated based on votes cast within the district’s current boundaries.

Sources: Poll averages from The New York Times. Individual surveys collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.