The AFC North is under the prime time spotlight in Week 10 as the Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football.

Baltimore is running after getting out of the blocks and has wins in six of the last seven games. However, my Bengals vs. Ravens predictions predict that Cincinnati will do its best to stay within striking distance of its division rival.

Keep reading while I do my best NFL picks Kickoff will be at 8:15 PM ET on November 6 at M&T Bank Stadium.

For more information, check out Sam Farley Lamar Jackson’s betting odds are under the spotlight and mine Bengals vs. Ravens all-time kicker’s selection.

Bengals-Ravens TNF prediction

Who will win Thursday Night Football?

NFL odds give the Ravens a 73% implied win probability on Thursday Night Football. While Baltimore has a better record, I don’t believe it’s much better than the Bengals. Cincinnati certainly needs this victory that much more as it struggles to stay in the postseason hunt and most of these AFC North matchups are head-to-head.

Baltimore has won four of the last six meetings with Cincy, and three of those victories were by shots or less. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bengals get a road win on Thursday Night Football.

My Bengals vs Ravens TNF best bet

Bengals +6.5 (-120 on FanDuel)

my analysis

When all sides are healthy, most AFC North matchups are spread around the field goal. But bettors believe it Baltimore Ravens They are above and beyond their divisional rivals in Week 10, and we have them as near-touchdown favorites at home tonight.

While the rankings say one thing, the evaluation of these teams says another. ravens and Cincinnati Bengals They have great quarterbacks, explosive offenses, and “meh” defenses.

We saw this in Week 5, when Baltimore edged Cincinnati in a wild 41-38 overtime thriller at Paycor Stadium. The Ravens won with a field goal in the extra frame, enough to cover the road score of -2.5.

This result was a rarity for the favorite in these grudge matches. Going back to 2015, underdogs appear in 56% of AFC North league matches. And when you take the Cleveland Browns bad news out of the equation, the remaining three members are collectively 68% opposed to being spread as offspring in divisional dances.

Baltimore’s defense has faltered in recent games and is a far cry from the historic highs of Mike Macdonald’s stopping unit in 2023. The Ravens rank 29th in EPA allowed per dropback, 23rd in opponent success rate per pass, and are ranked in the top 3 facing the Cincy blitz. aggressive translation of these advanced metrics.

Moreover, the Ravens’ second-half disappointments have burned bettors in 2024. Baltimore took its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, giving up 42% of its total points in the final 15 minutes. This is a troubling trend when creating a spread as large as Thursdays.

While the Ravens went 9 points against Denver last Sunday, John Harbaugh’s team is just 5-14-1 ATS (27%) when scoring six or more points since 2021. Bengals, Joe Burrow In a big step up in QB competition (he racked up nearly 400 yards and five TDs in Week 5), he was 11-7 ATS as a dog in the same span, including 4-1 ATS when scoring six or more points.

Bengals vs Ravens TNF same game matchup (SGP)

Bengals +6.5

above 52.5

Ja’Marr Chase can score at any time

This line is huge for a divisional rivalry like this, especially considering the Ravens’ weakness against the pass.

These teams accumulated almost 80 points in Week 5, and given the firepower on the field, I don’t understand why they couldn’t exceed that total.

Chase faces a Ravens ranked second in the Bottom 10 in the most advanced defensive metrics. He scored two goals in the Week 5 penalty shootout.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bengals-Ravens betting odds

Bengals-Ravens live betting odds

Bengals-Ravens opening odds

• Radiate: Cincinnati +6 | Baltimore -6
• money line: Cincinnati +225 | Baltimore -275
• Top/Bottom: Above 51.5 (-110) | Below 51.5 (-110)

Rates courtesy FanDuel

Bengals-Ravens matchup and Over/Under analysis

• After Week 9, oddsmakers opened Baltimore as a 6.5-point home favorite on Thursday Night Football. We’ve seen this spread fall as low as -5.5 in some sharp books, and on Wednesday we’re seeing books between -6 and -6.5.

• The Over/Under total opened in a short time as 51.5 points, and this number increased to 53 points by withdrawing money instantly from the Over. These opponents racked up nearly 1,000 yards and 79 points in Week 5, posting a shutout total of 48.5 O/U.

• Injuries to watch for in Cincinnati include WR Tee Higgins and OL Orlando Brown. Baltimore acquired WR Diontae Johnson and CB Tre’Dacious White at the trade deadline. Their participation in the short week is unknown.

• According to us Includes consensus In the tool, 52% of users pick the Bengals to close the spread, while 66% expect the game to go above the projected point total.

• It’s a similar story at FanDuel; sportsbook reports that 55% of bettors chose the Bengals to cover the spread, while 71% of the tickets were in the Over. Meanwhile, 57% of the tickets and 62% of the stakes are on the Ravens’ moneyline.

Knowing the Bengals vs Ravens betting trend

Excluding the fearsome Browns, underdogs are 47-22-2 ATS (68%) in AFC North league matchups since 2015. Find more NFL betting trends For the Bengals and Ravens.

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