Donald Trump’s return to the White House has led to groups working with the new arrivals preparing for the possibility of an increase in the number of people crossing the Canadian border.

Trump promised deportations during the election campaign Millions of undocumented immigrants on his first day in office.

Regardless of whether he follows through on that promise when he takes office in January, Trump’s second presidency could have a “profound impact on Canada’s borders,” said Jennifer Elrick, an associate professor of sociology at McGill University who studies immigration policy.

Elrick said the mere threat of mass deportation could lead to an increase in both asylum applications at official ports of entry and attempts to sneak into Canada on foot.

There was an increase in arrivals in the month after Trump came to power in 2017. Beginning in the summer of that year, thousands of people crossed into Canada, primarily on Roxham Road near Hemmingford, Que.

A more dangerous journey

The transition is now more difficult. Roxham Road was closed after Canada and the United States amended the Safe Third Country Agreement last year, expanding the terms of the agreement to cover the entire land border rather than just official crossings.

This expansion brought an end to Roxham Road as a final step around this system. In the months since, there have been far fewer interventions by the RCMP and more requests for asylum at the airport and official land borders.

Melissa Claisse, who works with the Montreal-based Welcome Collective, which was founded in 2017 to help those crossing the border, said her group is braced for the possibility of another increase in the number of new arrivals.

He is also concerned that closing Roxham Road will lead to more people attempting the dangerous crossing.

“It is very likely that we will see people in remote areas in the middle of winter, and we have already seen people die in such situations,” said Claisse, the group’s communications coordinator.

RCMP on alert

The Mounties have been preparing for this possibility in the event of a Trump victory for months, said RCMP Sgt. Charles Poirier, who lives in Montreal.

“We’re prepared for different types of scenarios, whether it’s just a few people or a large influx,” Poirier said in an interview.

RCMP say closing Roxham Road could lead to more people traveling through more remote areas. In recent months, authorities have also seen an increase in human trafficking from Canada to the United States

“It’s going to be a lot harder if people start going all over the area like people going south do,” he said.

“This is going to be a total game changer because these people will still have to be brought to a central facility. But our officers, we will be running throughout the area to catch them.”

The Canada Border Services Agency declined an interview request but said in a statement that it “operates in a work environment that changes daily and we stand ready to respond and adapt as necessary.”

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political fallout

The threat of more immigrants has quickly become a talking point in Quebec this week. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon warned that millions of people may consider moving north following Trump’s election.

Premier François Legault said he would pressure Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to “make sure he protects the border.”

Abdulla Daoud, director of the Refugee Center in downtown Montreal, said he doesn’t expect a massive influx of refugees overnight.

“No matter what Trump enacts, we probably won’t see the remains for another year,” he said. He said that as it stands now, the majority of people arriving at his center seek asylum after arriving at the airport.

He said the biggest obstacle they faced was the long wait for a work permit.

More people crossing the border without seeking asylum could lead to more undocumented people never reporting to authorities, Elrick said. He noted that there is no exact count of how many undocumented immigrants live in Canada, but researchers estimate 500,000 people are without status.

Regardless of whether Trump keeps his promise or not, Elrick said there needs to be a larger discussion about “how we plan to manage this form of immigration that has historically not been high on our radar.”

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