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    See the latest trail spaghetti styles for the storm

    Harry Posted on

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    Hurricane Rafael It continues to strengthen and is expected to be near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday. According to the National Hurricane Center.

    The NHC said Rafael was located about 260 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba, on Wednesday morning. The storm is moving northwestward, with a “general move to the northwest” expected over the next day or two, followed by a turn to the west-northwestward in the Gulf of Mexico.

    “On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move near or over the Isle of Youth late this morning or early afternoon and make landfall in western Cuba late today,” NHC forecasters wrote in an advisory Wednesday morning. he said. “Rafael is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.”

    The hurricane center said Rafael currently has maximum sustained winds around 100 mph, with rapid strengthening of higher winds expected. The storm could be “near major hurricane intensity” before making landfall, and while Rafael is expected to weaken over Cuba, it is expected to emerge as a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Rafael moved west of Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon; Here authorities opened four emergency shelters but despite heavy rain, no deaths or injuries were reported.

    Heavy rains are expected to affect areas from the Western Caribbean, particularly Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to Western Cuba, early Thursday, according to the NHC. Precipitation totals are expected to be between 4 and 7 inches in the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba, with isolated higher totals of up to 10 inches expected in higher terrain.

    Is the USA at risk?: Raphael rose to the hurricane; may be subject to ‘rapid concentration’.

    Florida Keys could see impacts starting Wednesday

    Tropical storm conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening over parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and central Florida Keys, the hurricane center said.

    Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and central Florida Keys; A few tornadoes are also possible for the region and far southwest mainland Florida.

    What about the Gulf Coast?

    While uncertainty remains in the long-range forecast, the NHC said it is too early to determine what impacts Rafael could bring to parts of the northern Gulf Coast. The waves are expected to spread to a large part of the Gulf by the end of the week.

    Forecasts indicate the storm could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle over the weekend. According to AccuWeatherThe highest probability of landfall as a tropical storm is along the central Louisiana coast. Other possible scenarios include the storm turning west and moving toward the west coast of Mexico.

    The good news: Drier air and stronger vertical wind shear in the Gulf are expected to weaken as the hurricane approaches the U.S. mainland. “This will not be a situation where you have a strengthening major hurricane making landfall in the United States, but rather a less severe situation in terms of wind intensity.” AccuWeather’s forecast says.

    Hurricane Rafael path tracker

    This forecast track shows the most likely path to the center of the storm. It does not show the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    Hurricane Rafael spaghetti models

    Illustrations include a range of estimators and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help it make its forecasts.

    Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

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