• Kamala Harris’s increasing election chances in recent days have weakened the Trump trade.
• A weekend poll showed Harris leading Trump in Iowa, shifting the betting markets toward Harris.
• Treasury yields, US dollar, Mexican peso, Bitcoin and Trump Media shares are changing.

There was a surprise twist in the key presidential poll over the weekend betting odds changed Toward Kamala Harris, we have encountered a series of “Trump Trades” that have picked up in recent weeks.

A. survey announced over the weekend Harris was leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa, 47% to 44%. The poll, conducted by Des Moines Register/Mediacom pollster J. Ann Selzer, is important because it sees Iowa as a state likely to be won by Trump.

“It’s hard to say that everyone saw this coming,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register. “He has clearly jumped into the lead.”

The survey sent shockwaves through betting markets over the weekend; Kalshi showed that Harris’ odds of beating Trump were briefly between 51% and 49% for the first time since early October.

As of 11:35 a.m. ET Monday morning, the odds on the betting site were 55% for Trump and 45% for Harris. In Polymarket, where Trump’s probability was over 60% last week, this rate dropped to 58.1%, while Harris’ probability became 42.8%.

The huge fluctuation in betting rates caused shock waves that were also felt in financial markets on the eve of the election.

Here’s the case for five parts of the Trump Trade.

(1) Treasury yields are falling

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 12 basis points on Monday to 4.275%, following a weekend survey surprise.

The rise in Treasury yields since the Fed cut interest rates in September reflects the market’s belief that a Trump second presidency looks likely and will happen. an inflationary event due to promises of large tariffs and mass deportations that would increase prices and wage growth respectively.

Investors have priced in higher yields in recent weeks on the view that Trump’s policies will make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates further.

(2) US dollar is weakening

The dollar rose in October as the possibility of Trump becoming president increased and the markets saw this situation. Tariffs and potential for higher interest rates To increase currency against competitors.

The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against other major currencies, rose nearly 4% in October.

But that trade fell on Monday following Harris’ rising odds, with the US dollar index falling almost 1% to 103.55.

(3) Mexican peso is rising

The peso fell sharply last month as Trump’s chances of winning the election gained momentum.

It is thought that the former president will implement harsh trade policies towards Mexico to “redirect” production from Mexico to the United States; This is a development that will harm the peso.

The Mexican peso lost 3% of its value against the U.S. dollar last month, but has regained most of that loss since polls and the betting market leaned toward Harris, up 1.5% on Monday.

(4) Bitcoin declines

Bitcoin It was among Trump’s hottest exchanges this year due to the former President’s enthusiastic embrace of the crypto market.

Trump gave the keynote speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in July and attended a crypto token launch last month. He is seen by the market as the “president of cryptocurrency” and his victory led to expectations for huge gains in the price of the token.

While Harris has maintained a positive attitude towards the bitcoin and crypto community, it has not been as strong as Trump’s.

Therefore, with Harris’ weekend betting odds rising, Bitcoin is down nearly 2% since Friday to $68,350.

(5) Trump Media shares fall

Perhaps the biggest Trump trade Trump Media and Technology Groupparent company of social media platform Truth Social. The stock is on its way a meme-like rally In recent weeks, the former president has strengthened his position in betting markets and polls.

Even the company’s valuation It overshadowed Elon Musk’s XBased on Fidelity’s most recent update from August.

But the stock has experienced a sharp reversal since Trump’s chances of winning the election have diminished. Shares of Truth Social fell as much as 5 percent on Monday and are down nearly 47 percent since last week.