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Virginia Football-North Carolina Match Preview, Score Prediction

Harry October 25, 2024

Virginia and North Carolina will renew the South’s Oldest Rivalry for the 129th time in Charlottesville on Saturday afternoon. The Cavaliers look to end their two-game losing streak, while the Tar Heels hope to get back into the winning bracket for the first time in more than a month, having lost their last four games. Both teams are eager to win, but only one will leave Scott Stadium with a significant ACC victory on Saturday.

Read on for our full preview of the Virginia-North Carolina game, including everything you need to know, including game details and notes, opponent scouting report, what to look for, and score prediction.

WHO: Virginia Cavaliers (4-3, 2-2 ACC) – North Carolina Tar Heels (3-4, 0-3 ACC)

When: Saturday, October 26 at 12:00 ET

Where: Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia (61,500)

How to watch: The CW Network

How to listen: SiriusXM 138 or 194, SXM App 956 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

All-time series: North Carolina leads 65-59-4

Last meeting: Virginia then beat – No. 10 North Carolina 31-27 at Chapel Hill on October 21, 2023.

Read Virginia’s injury report for the North Carolina game here: UVA Football Week 9 Injury Report: James Jackson, Antonio Clary, Ty Furnish

see below for UVA’s Week 9 depth chart For the UNC game:

Virginia Cavaliers’ Week 9 football depth chart vs. North Carolina. /Virginia Athletic

2023: 8-5, 4-4 ACC
2024: 3-4, 0-3 ACC

The post-Drake Maye era of North Carolina football began with a gutsy victory in Minnesota, but quarterback Max Johnson was gone with a season-ending injury, bringing even more uncertainty to the most important position on the field for the Heels. Things stabilized a bit on that front, with Jacolby Criswell emerging as the new starter. Criswell had a unique college football journey as he started his career at UNC in 2020 and transferred to Arkansas, appearing in eight games over the next three seasons before returning to Chapel Hill.

Criswell played well enough, throwing for 1,367 yards and eight touchdowns with three interceptions, but the engine of the UNC offense is All-American running back and potential first-round pick in the NFL Draft Omarion Hampton. Hampton, the ACC’s leading rusher and the nation’s fourth-leading rusher, has rushed for 901 yards and seven touchdowns and has rushed for at least 100 yards in six of the seven games played so far this season. Hampton had a good but not incredible game against Virginia last season, rushing for 112 yards on 19 carries.

Despite having to find a difficult quarterback position, UNC started the year 3-0 and should have started 4-0 if not for a terrible defensive performance against James Madison, in which the Tar Heels surrendered 611 yards of total offense and were mentally ill. An astonishing 70-50 defeat at home. This game was not the start of a spiral for UNC’s defense, which held Duke to 20 points the following week but lost 21-20. But the Heels lacked consistency on the defensive side of the ball, losing 34-24 to a still-undefeated Pittsburgh team and 41-34 to Georgia Tech, dropping them to 3-4 overall.

North Carolina has a number of quality defensive playmakers, including linebacker Power Echols, who leads the Heels in scoring with 48 points, but is ranked in most defensive categories (14th scoring defense, 15th total defense, 12th pass defense, 15th rushing). defense) ranks at the bottom of the ACC. total tackles, defensive lineman Jahvaree Ritzie, who led the team with five sacks, and linebacker Amare Campbell, who paced UNC with 6.0 tackles for loss.

Omarion Hampton vs. UVA Run Defense
After giving up less than 100 yards against Coastal Carolina and Boston College, the Virginia defense has regressed since then, allowing 177 yards to Louisville and a season-high 194 yards to Clemson last weekend. It’s more important than ever for the Cavaliers to get their run defense back on track as they face Omarion Hampton, the ACC’s leading rusher who has the ability and, perhaps more importantly, the potential to take over the game with a few big runs. If the Heels can run the ball the way they want, their team will have a significant advantage in possession.

Time of Possession, Third Down Conversions
Speaking of time of possession, neither team is particularly consistent in winning the possession battle, and both teams are mediocre defensively in terms of converting on third downs and getting off the field on third downs. Virginia ranks 13th in the ACC in third down conversions (35.8%), North Carolina ranks 12th (37.9%), UVA ranks 12th in opponent third down conversions (38.0%), and UNC ranks 8th (%) 33.7) ranks. In a match where offenses can dominate, whichever team can find the critical third defender and get off the field will probably win the game.

Dynamic but Cautious Anthony Colandrea
In a game that could turn into a shootout, the Cavaliers may need the gunslinger version of Anthony Colandrea, but they also need him to continue protecting the ball. He’s gone the last four games without an interception and that streak needs to continue, but Virginia needs to take a few more risks to cash in on big plays where the Cavaliers haven’t been successful. I kept up the Clemson game until it was too late. Colandrea has shown that he can be smart in football, but now he needs to show that he can be dynamic while being careful.

The Tar Heels are desperate for victory, with their last win coming on Sept. 14 and their last ACC win coming in November 2023. But the Cavaliers also need to play with some desperation. Their four-game shutout (No. 19 Pitt, No. 12 Notre Dame, No. 22 SMU at Virginia Tech) is brutal and the best way to get the two more wins needed to reach the bowl. For everyone who qualifies, this Saturday’s contest has been tagged as a must-win game. It might take a shootout, but Virginia comes away with a crucial win and hands North Carolina its fifth straight loss.

Score prediction: North Carolina 31, Virginia 37

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