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The stakes are high for the October jobs report – here’s what to expect: Sevens Report
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The stakes are high for the October jobs report – here’s what to expect: Sevens Report

Investors will get an update from the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge on Thursday morning. But the big deal in terms of this week’s economic data is Friday’s October update on the U.S. employment situation.

Risks are high regarding the latest data from the main US employment barometer. Although not in the way many investors would think, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

The effects of hurricanes that hit Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, along with the ongoing Boeing strike, are expected to increase the unemployment rate. That’s why investors were already expecting a weak report, Essaye said in a comment he shared with MarketWatch on Thursday.

This also means that the biggest risk to the market will be if the data still comes back strong. Signs that the labor market is still resilient could pressure the Federal Reserve to keep its policy interest rate target steady next week, Essaye added.

A number that’s too hot could send stocks lower and push Treasury yields higher as investors factor in the higher likelihood of a “no-landing” scenario.

“A second consecutive monthly employment report of over 200,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate below 4% will strengthen the expectation that there will be no downturn and prompt a sharp step back for another interest rate cut quickly after the cut in September,” Essaye said.