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Japan’s ruling party is preparing for a coup in parliament…
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Japan’s ruling party is preparing for a coup in parliament…

TOKYO (AP) — Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba The conservative ruling party was poised to take a blow to its comfortable majority in the lower house of parliament in Sunday’s elections, a result of public anger over financial scandals and discontent with the stagnant economy.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party is certain to lose its majority in the 465-seat assembly, the most powerful of Japan’s two-chamber parliament, according to exit polls by public broadcaster NHK. It remains to be seen whether the ruling coalition with junior partner Komeito can maintain its majority.

The consequences could weaken Ishiba’s grip on power, and he may need to find a third partner if he cannot pass his party’s policies through parliament.

Ishiba took over on October 1 Fumio KishidaHe resigned after failing to calm the public about widespread slush fund practices among Liberal Democratic Party MPs. Ishiba immediately ordered early elections, hoping to drum up support by using his outspoken, reformist image.

A total of 1,344 candidates, including a record number of 314 women, are running for office. First results are expected within a few hours.

Ishiba has set a goal of retaining a 233-seat majority in the ruling coalition between the LDP and the Buddhist-backed Komeito. NHK exit polls showed that the LDP alone was expected to win 153 to 219 seats, a sharp drop from the comfortable single majority of 247 it previously held. Komeito was expected to win 21 to 35 seats.

In his final speech in Tokyo on Saturday, Ishiba apologized for his party’s mismanagement of funds and vowed to “start over as an equal, fair, modest and honest party.” He said only the LDP could govern Japan responsibly with the experience and reliable policies of the ruling coalition.

Ishiba, once a popular politician known for criticizing even his own party’s policies, has also received support for his weeks-long Cabinet relegation.

The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, is led by centrist leader Yoshihiko Noda, who briefly served as prime minister during the LDP’s fall from power in 2009-2012.

Noda’s party is expected to make significant gains; exit polls show the number of seats rising from 98 to 191. Noda says Sunday’s elections are a rare chance for a change of government, which would be the most effective political reform. The party is having difficulty finding other opposition groups to cooperate with.

Some voters at a polling station in downtown Tokyo early Sunday said they were weighing the corruption scandal and economic measures. But analysts say Ishiba’s LDP is expected to remain the top party in Japan’s parliament as voters have doubts about the opposition’s ability and inexperience.

“Public criticism of the slush fund scandal has intensified, and this criticism will not go away easily,” said Izuru Makihara, a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Tokyo. “There is a growing sense of justice and people are rejecting the privileges afforded to politicians.” Makihara suggested that Ishiba needed bold political reform measures to regain the public’s trust.

Ishiba promised to revive the rural economy, address Japan’s falling birth rate, and strengthen defense. But his cabinet has old faces, just two women, and were seen as alienating members of the scandal-tainted group led by former prime minister Shinzo Abe. Ishiba quickly backed away from his previous support for a dual surname option for married couples and the legalization of same-sex marriage; This was an obvious compromise for the party’s influential ultraconservatives.

Political analyst Rintaro Nishimura of The Asia Group said his popularity has fallen “due to the gap between what the public expects from him as prime minister and the reality he brings as prime minister.”

The LDP is also being tested for its ability to overcome this rift on Sunday. Abe’s legacyExperts say his nearly eight-year rule has led to corruption, with his policies focusing on security, trade and industry but largely ignoring equality and diversity.

Political observers say there may be attempts to regroup among opposition parties to decide whether to cooperate among themselves or join the ruling coalition.

Potential new partners for the LDP include the Democratic People’s Party, a group that broke away from the CPDJ and calls for lower taxes, and a conservative Japan Innovation Party; but both currently rule out a possible coalition with the LDP.

With many of the factions that helped rally support to advance elections and policies breaking up, the LDP could enter a period of less cohesive and short-lived prime ministers. Ishiba is expected to continue at least until the ruling bloc approves basic budget plans at the end of December.

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AP video reporter Mayuko Ono contributed to this report.