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    • Latest election polls in 2024 favor Trump. Will it matter?
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    Latest election polls in 2024 favor Trump. Will it matter?

    Harry Posted on

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    WASHINGTON – In his third race for president Republican candidate Donald Trump has never had a better poll position than it does now – but he’ll have to wait at least a week to find out whether it means anything.

    Trump is ahead as of Monday Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris with as close a margin as possible – 0.1% – Real Open Policy average from the latest polls. In the same survey, he was 7.5 percent behind Joe Biden four years ago and 4.6 percent behind Hillary Clinton in 2016, when he won the presidency.

    Trump and his allies’ perspective as the ballot boxes get closer the higher his chances of winning enough states to capture in the popular vote Electoral College and presidency — and he outperformed the polls in both of his previous races.

    Democrats say there’s reason to doubt that will happen this time. They said pollsters compensated for what they called “hidden Trump voters” from the previous two elections and inflated Trump’s numbers by oversampling Republicans.

    Democrats said Republican candidates are underperforming in the polls in the 2022 congressional elections. And Trump has consistently underperformed in the polls in a series of Republican primaries earlier this year.

    “If a vote is missed, that will be in our favor,” said Democratic strategist and polling analyst Simon Rosenberg.

    The apparent closeness of the race and the uncertainty of the polls are why both campaigns are urging their public to get themselves and others to the polls.

    “Act like you’re one point behind,” Trump told his supporters Sunday. Madison Square Garden rally.

    Harris and her allies delivered similar messages to their voters, and the vice president also expressed confidence in the outcome.

    “My gut vote is my gut,” Harris told reporters while campaigning in Philadelphia. “I let the campaign staff handle all the other stuff and respond to what I see.”

    He added: “It’s very exciting and the momentum is with us.”

    The battleground states that will decide the election, including the trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin: also pretty closeand Trump supporters believe “secret votes” are still a big factor.

    in pennsylvania, Real Open Policy average He gives Trump a 0.5% lead — at this time eight years ago, he was 5 percentage points behind Clinton in the Keystone State — but still barely made it on Election Day.

    in michiganTrump has a 0.1 point lead RCP average. Four years ago, Biden was ahead in the poll by 8.6 percentage points, while eight years ago, Clinton was ahead by seven points. Trump narrowly lost Michigan in 2020 and narrowly won in 2016.

    What about Wisconsin? Trump ahead by 0.3 percentage points RCP average. Biden led the state by an average of 6.4 points in the poll four years ago and barely won the state. Clinton had a 6 percentage point lead in 2016 and Trump barely won the state.

    Trump touts and exaggerates his poll numbers; Democrats, however, foresee a different story once the voting is complete.

    “Here’s a guess,” said pro-Harris political commentator Matthew Dowd. X social media site. “Note that every single one of the pollsters/election forecasters changed their models this week to support Harris… They have been wrong for a month.”

    Joey Garrison contributed

    Harry
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